Iran-US Ceasefire: Who Won 39-Day War in Gulf So Far?
20:09 08.04.2026 (Updated: 22:12 08.04.2026)
© AP Photo / Vahid Salemi
Subscribe
Iran and the US announced a ceasefire to their 39-day war just minutes ahead of a deadline set by American President Donald Trump.
Given that none of the military objectives set by the United States, while announcing its campaign against Iran, were met, it appears that the Islamic Republic gained the upper hand and was in the ascendency in the war, a defence expert has said.
It is worth noting that when the US and Israel launched the war on Iran, three very clear military objectives were set by both of them collectively.
One of them was the destruction of Iran's military capability, including its air force and navy. Second, was the destruction of Iran's ballistic missile capability, and the third was that they cannot have a situation where Iran can develop a nuclear weapon in future under any circumstances.
This was despite the fact that the US and Israel claimed to have completely obliterated Iran's nuclear program when bunker-buster bombs were dropped on the Shia-majority nation's atomic facilities during the June 2025 attack. The essence of it was that the 450 or 460 kilograms of enriched uranium, which was still in the custody of Iran, should either be handed over or taken over by the US and Israel.
Moreover, the fourth objective was that the regime change in Iran should take place either by force or by creating conditions wherein the people would come out and force the regime to be toppled.
"But has the regime changed? The regime has not changed. While the Supreme Leader was assassinated and a number of top leaders were eliminated, Mojtaba Khamenei took over from his father, Ali Khamenei, who, under normal circumstances, would not have occupied the top post because Iranians do not encourage hereditary succession. Mojtaba is supposed to be more brazen and aggressive than even his father, " stated retired Colonel Rajeev Agarwal, an Indian Army veteran and the author of the recently published book "Between Tehran and Tel Aviv: Gaza's Story of Unending War".
Has the US and Israel been able to take out the 460 kg of enriched uranium? In fact, from all accounts, this was one of the operations that was going on when the F-15 had crashed last week, and the Americans had to send in more than 100 aircraft to evacuate and rescue an airman, the military analyst reckoned.
By any military analysis, it would be clear to anyone that to rescue one pilot, one does not require such a huge amount of air and ground effort. So most probably it was an effort in conjunction to get Iran's Uranium stockpile; however, it proved futile in the end, he added.
"Additionally, Iran's ballistic missile program has not been destroyed till yesterday when the ceasefire was called. In fact, this morning, 30 minutes after the ceasefire had been announced, the Iranian ballistic missiles were landing in Israel, piercing through their air and the defence missile shield," Agarwal told Sputnik India.
Neither Iran has been economically destroyed. On the contrary, the Strait of Hormuz has become the biggest bargaining chip as far as Iran is concerned, the strategic affairs pundit underscored.
The US has revoked the sanctions on the sale of oil, and therefore, Iran is able to sell the oil openly at least for 30 days, and maybe the timeline could be extended further. Plus, the increase in the price of oil is obviously bringing more revenue to Iran, he stressed.
"On top of that, in the ceasefire statement, where Trump has said that the 10-point proposal submitted by Iran looks reasonable and could be taken up for discussion, points towards which way the tide is flowing," Agarwal noted.
Iran's 10-Point Proposal Includes:
Commitment to non-aggression
Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
Acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment
Lifting of all primary sanctions
Lifting of all secondary sanctions
Termination of UN Security Council resolutions
Termination of IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
Payment of compensation to Iran
Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
Cessation of war on all fronts, including against resistance forces in Lebanon.
"In case any of these points are agreed on, let us say out of the ten, six or seven points are agreed on. There is no way that you can say that Iran is a loser. Iran would have won everything that it wanted," the Middle East affairs specialist underlined.
One should not forget that there are some points in Iran's perspective which are absolutely non-negotiable. One is non-aggression in the future. Second is the depletion, if not removal, of American military assets and resources from the Gulf region. Third is, the right to enrichment of Uranium has to stay, and its ballistic missile program cannot be put under any kind of restriction, Agarwal emphasised.
Lastly, the Strait of Hormuz is a new reality, and that has to be accepted by everyone, whether Iran monitors and earns revenues individually or it does in conjunction with Oman, is a matter of if and not when, and the world has to get used to and adjust soon, he concluded.
Lastly, the Strait of Hormuz is a new reality, and that has to be accepted by everyone, whether Iran monitors and earns revenues individually or it does in conjunction with Oman, is a matter of if and not when, and the world has to get used to and adjust soon, he concluded.
🚨🇺🇸 US security umbrella fails the Gulf nations
— Sputnik India (@Sputnik_India) April 8, 2026
Gulf nations may now rethink their security model — shifting toward a regional, inclusive architecture that no longer relies on the US.
"A new security architecture will evolve, which is more inclusive": Colonel (Retd) Rajeev… pic.twitter.com/KEV8MZlx4O
