Why Are Pro-Monarchists Protesting in Nepal & What Are Its Implications For India?

How Pro-Monarchy Protests Impact India?The ongoing pro-monarchy demonstrations in the Nepalese capital Kathmandu are being led by a clamor for change following years of political instability and economic hardship in the Himalayan state, two Nepali geopolitical experts have said.

The remarks of Santosh Poudel, the co-founder of the country's policy studies think tank, Nepal Institute for Policy Research (NIPoRe), and Sajina Rai, a Program Director at the Kathmandu-based Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA), come at a time when clashes between the police and the pro-monarchy demonstrators have intensified in the Nepali capital.

The protests erupted last week with thousands joining Nepali political activist Durga Prasai on the streets of Kathmandu to demand the restoration of monarchy in Nepal.

As the crowd swelled at the site of the protests in Kathmandu, the police used water cannons, and teargas to disperse the demonstrators. Additionally, the law enforcement authorities have put hundreds of protestors behind bars.

Reasons Behind Demonstrations in Kathmandu

Against this backdrop, Poudel stated that it was not the first of pro-monarchy protests nor was Prasai the oldest monarchist in Nepal. For instance, parties such as the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) have consistently led the charge to reintroduce constitutional monarchy in the Himalayan state.

He mentioned that the RPP had become the fourth-largest party in the second constitutional assembly elections in 2013. However, the Constituent Assembly reconfirmed Nepal as a republic in the 2015 Constitution.

"In recent years, the debate surrounding monarchy has made a bigger noise on the political scene. Various issues are at play, but public frustration against the ruling political leaders and parties for their incompetence has been a major factor," Poudel told Sputnik India.

Nepalese police

The think tanker pointed out that the significant plurality of voters currently, who are young, were born only when Nepal transitioned to a multi-party democracy from absolute monarchy, in 1990. They have only known the same band of key political parties and leaders (mainly Oli, Deuba, Prachanda, Nepal, Koirala, etc.) at the helm of power.

"Thus, they readily hold them responsible for the current political instability, corruption, and crony capitalism whereby a select few businesses are in cahoots for the benefit of politicians, but the vast majority of people are forced to emigrate abroad to make a living. That's why, there is a clamor for change," Poudel underlined.

He opined that for the older voters, especially the higher caste voters from the hilly region, there is a clamor to reclaim Nepal's identity as a Hindu state. For them, the monarchy and the Hindu state go hand in hand.

Nonetheless, the political elite and major political parties are largely against the reintroduction of monarchy, and the pro-monarchical voices are still marginal on the whole but seem to be spreading, Poudel suggested.

AIDIA's Sajina Rai agreed with Poudel's assessment, emphasizing that the protests for the reintroduction of the monarchy in Nepal were driven majorly by internal factors.

"The primary cause stems from dissatisfaction with the existing political system, which has failed to fulfill the pledges made when overthrowing the monarchy in 2008," Rai said in a conversation with Sputnik India.

She explained that the Nepalese envisioned a prosperous and developed nation after abolishing the monarchy, but over a decade later, the country is grappling with instability and corruption. Plus, the recent economic downturn has significantly influenced the sentiments of the general public.

Protesters in Nepal

How Pro-Monarchy Protests Impact India

Poudel stressed that India is engaged directly and indirectly in Nepal's political development. In 2006, India sent Karan Singh as the special envoy to get the then-agitating parties and the King to agree on a dual pillar of parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy (he did not succeed).

"Even in recent times, after BJP came to power, India has been engaged in promoting or supporting the Hindu state movement. The movement itself, whether it succeeds or not, will not change the numero uno status of India in Nepal, which it retained even after the 2006 changes," Poudel highlighted.

Meanwhile, Rai noted that the resurgence of pro-monarchy sentiments may potentially alter the geopolitical dynamics in the region, considering the close people-to-people ties between Kathmandu and New Delhi.

"In Nepal, the monarchy is synonymous with a Hindu state. India could leverage this situation to address and potentially change the prevailing anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal that have developed over time," she commented.

Both strategic affairs analysts also shared their views about the possible involvement of the United States (US) in organizing the anti-government protests in the hill country, considering PM Prachanda is perceived to be pro-China.

PM Narendra Modi greets PM of Nepal as the latter arrives in Hyderabad House for bilateral talks

Is There a US Hand in Nepal's Pro-Monarchy Protests?

Poudel refuted that the current ruling party was close to China though he acknowledged that Prachanda has some ideological leaning towards the country.

But, the NIPoRe co-founder affirmed that the Nepalese premier understands the nuances of foreign policy.

"Moreover, the Nepali Congress, which China labels as pro-India or pro-America, is his critical coalition partner. Thus, it would not be correct to say that the current ruling 'government' is close to China," Poudel observed.

He elaborated that the US has indeed engaged more deeply with Nepal in the last few years. The US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) fund (a $500 American initiative for infrastructure development in Nepal) and the failed attempt at the State Partnership Program (SPP) point to that.

"Nepal being invited to the Summit of Democracies is America's attempt at nudging Nepal to be a part of its Indo-Pacific strategy or engaging with the Tibetan refugees in Nepal more closely, all pointing to the same story. Also, the US has taken a more indirect route of influencing Nepal through a network of NGOs and INGOs," Poudel revealed.

In saying that, further political instability would take political eyeballs off the increased US engagement in Nepal to instability. Yet, the primary reason behind the movement is homegrown, he summed up.

On the other hand, Rai evaluated that Washington did not have any direct role in the pro-monarchy protests in the South Asian country.

"While I acknowledge the presence of some external influences, I don't think the US has direct influence in these protests. Though the US is increasing its engagement with Nepal, the current demonstrations seem more connected to internal problems that have been exacerbated by certain groups with vested interests," she concluded.

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Why Are Pro-Monarchists Protesting in Nepal & What Are Implications For India?

Reasons Behind Demonstrations in Kathmandu

How Pro-Monarchy Protests Impact India

Is There a US Hand in Nepal's Pro-Monarchy Protests?