The Indian Navy and the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) will "definitely" be the first responders to attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, a military pundit has said.
The remarks of Commodore (retired) Seshadri Vasan, who served in both the Indian Navy and the ICG, come hours after the US announced a 10-nation Task Force called, Guardian of Prosperity, to guard shipping lanes in the area amid Houthi attacks, especially on naval vessels of Israeli-origin or ships bound to the Jewish state.
Besides the US and the UK, other sovereign states that are part of the alliance are Seychelles, Spain, the Netherlands, Norway, France, Italy, Bahrain, and Canada.
Interestingly, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, among the most influential countries in the region, are not part of the group.
Against this backdrop, Vasan affirmed that it was very clear that India was dependent on the sea routes, particularly for its energy needs and therefore it holds a great stake in protecting the sea lanes of communication.
"One must not forget that when there was a piracy attack in the region, the Indian Navy immediately intervened and if there's any situation that is likely to go out of hand, the Indian Navy and the Indian Coast Guard will definitely be the first responders in that area, particularly when New Delhi's interests are directly threatened," Vasan told Sputnik India on Thursday.
India Cannot Remain a Silent Spectator
He added that there were no doubts that India was a major stakeholder in the entire development that was taking place and could not be a silent spectator.
The Indian Navy veteran noted that India has the capability to be the first responder in the area and it has done so in the past, demonstrating it on multiple occasions from the time of Operation Cactus.
"Therefore, all the options that are necessary would already have been made and kept ready as a contingency plan depending on where the situation occurs, what kind of escalation has taken place, and how it affects India directly or indirectly," Vasan, who is currently the Director of Chennai-based think tank Centre for China Studies (C3S), underlined.
Operation Cactus was an Indian military campaign that helped avert the coup against the democratically-elected government of then-Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the archipelago country in 1988.
On the other hand, Lieutenant-Colonel (retd) J.S. Sodhi pointed out that India was caught in the crossfire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War with the Red Sea becoming a war zone.
"India's shipping will get greatly affected as the war escalates as the Houthis have found a soft spot in the Red Sea. Till now no Indian merchant navy ships have been attacked, but as this war prolongs, the chances of Indian merchant navy ships being attacked can't be ruled out," Sodhi emphasised.
The defence analyst stated that big shipping companies like Evergreen of Taiwan and Maersk of Denmark have already announced that they will not use the Red Sea and it was a matter of time before other shipping companies announced the same as in a war zone nothing can be predicted or assured.
"With $200 billion worth of Indian business transiting the Red Sea annually, this sea route is of immense significance to India. The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) in which Seychelles is located is also important to India from a security point of view. Thus, with the IOR getting militarised due to the Israel-Hamas War, India will have to beef up its naval presence in IOR," Sodhi explained.
Global Energy Prices Expected to Rise Amid Houthi Attacks
The strategic affairs pundit predicted that global energy prices will see a rise amid frequent disruptions in supplies due to the Red Sea getting militarised, resulting in more and more shipping companies avoiding taking this sea route.
Sodhi suggested that either they will transit via the Cape of Good Hope or use the Northern Sea Route which is close to northern Russia, hence leading to larger transit time and uncertainty as travel on longer distances becomes more uncertain when compared to travel on shorter distances.
"The world should be ready to face costly and uncertain energy supplies if the Israel-Hamas War prolongs," he summed up.
India Has Vested Interest in Red Sea
Interestingly, an Indian MEA official acknowledged that New Delhi was closely monitoring the rapidly changing scenario in the Red Sea.
"India has vested interest in the Red Sea and we have been supportive of free movement of commercial shipping. That is something we are interested in and of course, monitoring the developments there," MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told reporters during his weekly briefing in New Delhi.
"We are also part of international efforts to ensure free shipping, piracy or otherwise, India has been involved in it. So, we will continue to monitor that," he added.
Bagchi, however, didn't confirm or deny if India had formally joined the alliance.