Pakistan's ex-prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power almost two years ago: he blamed the United States for a "regime change", but the opposition insisted he was lying and fabricating false claims.
Amid the controversy, Khan’s party revealed some parts of a secret diplomatic communication (cipher) and Khan himself, on several occasions, made references to a cipher that he and his team were supposedly in possession of.
Back in August, The Intercept, had published that same cipher that Imran Khan had referred to, and it was following the release of that diplomatic dispatch that Pakistan’s foreign ministry sent a query to the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s top spy agency asking if the revelation of the plain text of a cipher compromised the integrity of the system’s encryption.
What Did the Infamous Cipher Contain?
This cipher contains communication between a senior State Department official, Donald Lu, and Pakistan’s then-ambassador to the US.
In it, the American official passed on a message from Washington, promising the Pakistani diplomat that “all will be forgiven” if they remove Imran Khan from power through a vote of no confidence.
Just one month after this talk took place, Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote initiated against him in the parliament in April 2022.
Security personnel with bulletproof shields escort Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan, center, as he arrives to appear at Election Commission of Pakistan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, July 25, 2023.
© AP Photo / W.K. Yousafzai
Khan's independent stance and his efforts to grow ties with other countries without seeking Washington's "permission" was seen by many analysts as the main reason for his ouster.
Now Imran Khan is facing a trial for leaking parts of that diplomatic communication to his supporters. If he is found guilty, Khan could face a death penalty for treason, or a ten year prison sentence under the espionage act.
Khan has denied these charges and his lawyers have repeatedly said that the cipher's contents did not, in any way, compromise the country's security apparatus, as only the plain text was revealed and not the encryption method.
Leaked ISI Document Suggests Charges Against Khan Are Wrong
A report by The Intercept, published earlier this week, claims that the publication had obtained a document from Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
This document is an analysis allegedly conducted by the ISI at the request of Pakistan's Foreign Ministry in August, on whether Imran Khan was guilty of revealing the state's secret document (cipher).
The conclusion reached by the ISI in its analysis was that Khan's action did not pose threat to the encryption system used by the Pakistani missions abroad and therefore, did not compromise the country's national security, which nullifies either treason or espionage charges against him.
"If plain text of an encrypted message (cryptogram) ... is leaked it has no effect on security of encryption,” the document prepared on August 23 said, according to The Intercept. "Leakage of a plain text message does not compromise the algorithm," it added.
“The encryption algorithm is designed with an assumption that the plain/ciphertext pairs and algorithms are known to the adversary, the security lies in the secrecy of the key, ” the publication wrote, quoting the ISI report.
Hence, as the publication stated, “a crucial document from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency undermines a major plank in the high-profile prosecution of the country’s former prime minister, Imran Khan.”
It should be noted that although Khan never disclosed the cipher's full contents, at times, in public speeches, he quoted statements recorded in it from US officials promising to reward Pakistan for his ouster. At one rally, Khan even waved what he said was the printed text of the document, without revealing its exact contents.
But even then, the internal conclusion of the ISI, according to the publication, was crystal clear: “No threat to Pakistan’s encryption existed."
It should also be noted that Pakistan's Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) responsible for border control, criminal investigation, counter-intelligence and security of the country is handling Khan's trial and has not commented on the ISI’s findings.
Meanwhile, Khan is in Adiala jail where a special court was set up in August to conduct Khan’s prison trial in the cipher case. The court held in-camera proceedings for several weeks before its hearings were declared illegal by the Islamabad High Court. The court demanded jail authorities to hold an open trial by providing access to the public and media organizations.
Will Khan Walk Free?
If Imran Khan's actions did not compromise Pakistan's security should the courts take ISI's revelations into consideration and shouldn't the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) get on with dropping the espionage charges against the former prime minister?
Sputnik spoke to a former three-star ranking official in Pakistan's Armed Forces, Hassan Zulfiqar.
"The army is adamant to keep Imran Khan out of the picture one way or the other. Judiciary is compromised and cannot stand up to the army. So draw your own conclusions," Zulfiqar stated.
According to a political analyst, Dr. Rashid, "Since the courts do not work in accordance with the laws, I do not see any changes in this case, and the army will do its best to convict Imran Khan for one reason or another."
Sputnik also spoke with a Scotland based political observer and writer, Parvez Salik, who said that it is, "Unlikely that the ISI (whose intelligence sources are much like the IDF) did not know about Khan’s role in this secret cable. Why they have chosen to share their conclusions now - near election time - is the real question. It all depends on the mood of the masses and whether they will vote for PTI regardless of whether Imran Khan is disqualified or not. I suspect the army is playing a double game, hedging its bet just in case the Supreme Court exonerates Imran," Salik explained.
The observer further said that the reputation of the army has been "tarnished of late" and this may be a way of "regaining some trust with the common man or woman as well as dealing with Imran Khan if elected as prime minister again."
Hence, although it remains to be seen how the recent document affects Imran Khan's future one thing is obvious: Pakistan has been mired by a series of political, economic, and security crises since Khan's ouster.
The country has experienced record-breaking inflation, social unrest, and a wave of terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban. Both the country and its former leader are paying a heavy price and only political stability may turn things round for the country in the near future.