Indo-Russian Relations
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US Sanctions on Russia-India LNG Trade Destined to Fail

The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Indian entities Gotik Energy and Plio Energy, the owner and commercial manager of the New Energy vessel.
Sputnik
The US Treasury has imposed three rounds of sanctions targeting Indian and Emirati firms transporting the first Russian gas shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 Project over the past three months. The ships were reportedly taking the LNG to buyers believed to be located in the Asia-Pacific.
Likewise last November, Washington imposed sanctions on Novatek PAO, the developer of the LNG Arctic projects.
However, emerging market dynamics in India and across the Asia-Pacific indicate that it would be unviable for the US to stem the flow of Russian LNG cargoes to markets in India, which has set the goal to more than double the share of LNG in its overall energy mix to 15% by 2030. According to Petronas LNG, Indian LNG imports constitute over 5% of the overall global trade.

Arpit Chandna, an energy specialist at Refinitiv, a London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) company, told Sputnik India that both Russia and India appeared inclined to the prospect of "swap contracts" as opposed to traditional long-term contracts.

"Being a major LNG importer, India has traditionally been buying LNG on long-term contracts (LTCs) basis. But recent price parities have provided a lot of purchase and swap contracts options to be used for procurements," Arpit stated.

Given growing gas demand in India, Chandna cited LSEG data which shows that New Delhi's weekly LNG imports stood at 853 million cubic metres (MCM) in the week of 22 July, the highest in a quarter. Chandna likewise noted that the US and Qatar were the biggest suppliers of LNG to India in that weekly period.
Furthermore, the energy specialist said that the state-backed Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) had issued a swap tender for three LNG cargoes for loading in the US in exchange for three cargoes to be delivered in India.
He said that India was looking to source LNG from all available sources in view of the rising demand.

While the current amounts of Russian LNG exports to India are at a minimal level, there is a growing interest in the Indian market to source Russian LNG supplies, as evidenced by recent pacts between Indian (Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corporation Limited, Spacenet Enterprises) and Russian energy companies.

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in July, both leaders welcomed the signing of the 'Program of India-Russia cooperation in trade, economic and investment spheres in the Russian Far East' for 2024-29, which includes a necessary framework for cooperation in energy.

Russian Outlook on Global LNG Trade

Addressing the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok this week, Putin said that Russia would build up its LNG supplies to regions around the world, including China, Central Asia, Iran and other markets.
"Let’s not forget the markets neighbouring Iran are huge – there is a colossal need. Different opportunities exist, and we will explore different markets, we will make swap arrangements," the Russian president highlighted.

Chandna noted that the Arctic LNG 2 Project was developed primarily to sell gas to Indian and other Asian buyers, adding that its production capacity was around 19.8 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA).

In cumulative terms, Russia is looking to capture 20% of the global LNG market by 2030.
The LSEG specialist said that despite Western sanctions on its energy sector, Russia's LNG output in January-July 2024 increased by 10.8% to 334 billion cubic metres (bcm) compared to last year.

"Russia's January-August 2024 exports surged by 7.3% from 20.7 MMT. In August, Russian month-on-month LNG exports jumped by over 30%," Arpit said.

"These statistics indicate that although Western sanctions are restrictive majors to constrain Russia, buyers are still considerate in importing needed volumes. Russia has been clear that Western sanctions are illegal and undermine the global LNG trade," Chandna forecast.

He also highlighted that most of the LNG vessels were now loading cargo on an STS basis.
"Given all these trends, the Western sanctions shouldn't be a hindrance in injecting Russian Arctic LNG 2 supplies into the market. Thus, it won't be unique to find the Russian LNG cargoes being imported to major gas-consuming countries such as India," concluded Chandna.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed by Arpit Chandna are solely his own and do not express the views or opinions of his employer).
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