The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly Iran's targeting of energy infrastructure in key LNG-exporting nations like Qatar and the UAE, poses a significant risk to India's gas security, an energy specialist has said.
"With nearly 40–45% of India's LNG imports sourced from Qatar, any prolonged disruption could materially tighten domestic supply. In the near term, India is likely to face a dual challenge of reduced physical availability and sharply higher LNG prices, as replacement cargoes will have to be procured from the spot market at elevated rates," Arpit Chandna, a commodities analyst with the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), told Sputnik India.
This could lead to supply curtailments for industrial consumers, while priority segments such as city gas distribution and fertilisers remain protected, he added.
Risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz further compound the situation by creating logistical bottlenecks and increasing freight and insurance costs. Given the absence of strategic gas reserves and limited global spare LNG capacity, India's ability to fully offset these disruptions remains constrained, the observer reckoned.
If the situation persists, the impact will likely translate into higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, and demand compression across gas-intensive sectors of the economy, Chandna underscored.
Meanwhile, India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Thursday said that it was diversifying its gas imports, moving to suppliers outside the Middle East.
Risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz further compound the situation by creating logistical bottlenecks and increasing freight and insurance costs. Given the absence of strategic gas reserves and limited global spare LNG capacity, India's ability to fully offset these disruptions remains constrained, the observer reckoned.
If the situation persists, the impact will likely translate into higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, and demand compression across gas-intensive sectors of the economy, Chandna underscored.
Meanwhile, India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Thursday said that it was diversifying its gas imports, moving to suppliers outside the Middle East.
"We're handling it (the crisis) by trying to source cargo from other places… We've tried to diversify LPG sources as well, and now some of our LPG is also coming from the US. In the case of LNG, Qatar is definitely a major supplier, but there are other suppliers too. For example, the US and Australia are the other big suppliers," Sujata Sharma, the Joint Secretary in the Ministry, told reporters in Delhi.
The country's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that procuring gas from Russia was also on the table.
"We're trying to buy LPG from everywhere, wherever it's available. So if Russia is available, we'll go there too. Because the current situation is such that we have to ensure that our people's fuel needs are met... I can say that we want to have a wide range of options," MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said during his weekly media briefing in the national capital.
Experts believe that the attacks on energy infrastructure are part of the Israeli-US and Iranian war strategy to cripple economic sources in each other's spheres of influence/territories.
"The targeting of energy infrastructure - whether by the United States and Israel in Iran or by Iran in the GCC countries - reflects an intent to disrupt the critical economic lifelines on which these states depend. Such attacks aim to weaken state capacity by disrupting the production and supply of oil and gas," Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, the Coordinator of the West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), India's premier national security think tank, said in an interview with Sputnik India.
The energy-exporting Gulf Arab countries are deeply concerned about the economic repercussions of the ongoing war. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is particularly alarming, as it has direct and immediate consequences for their national economies. That's why their strategy prioritises restraint and de-escalation, with the aim of preventing further instability that could undermine their long-term national visions for economic development, regional security, and stability in the Gulf, he explained.
From Iran's perspective, US military installations in the GCC countries constitute genuine security threats. While Iran considers it legitimate to target American military bases in the Gulf, the GCC countries view such actions as a clear violation of their sovereignty. This will have serious implications for the future of the GCC-Iran relations, the strategic affairs pundit stressed.
From Iran's perspective, US military installations in the GCC countries constitute genuine security threats. While Iran considers it legitimate to target American military bases in the Gulf, the GCC countries view such actions as a clear violation of their sovereignty. This will have serious implications for the future of the GCC-Iran relations, the strategic affairs pundit stressed.
"On the other hand, for the United States and Israel, the key objective is to decisively weaken Iran's strategic and military capabilities. The broader aim is to degrade Iran's nuclear programme, as well as its missile and drone capacities, thereby ensuring that it does not pose a significant security threat to them in the future," Pradhan underlined.
Md. Muddassir Quamar, an academic at the Centre for West Asian Studies at the prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), described the situation as highly uncertain and tense, but the US and Israel remain on the same page as far as the ongoing war with Iran is concerned.
"About the GCC countries, they have shown serious restraint thus far, but how long it is sustainable is difficult to say. Any serious targeting of energy infrastructure in the region has the potential to further intensify and expand the war well beyond its current scope," Quamar concluded.