Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh signalled New Delhi's role, possibly involving it in initiating a diplomatic dialogue in the Gulf, where the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have blocked the Strait of Hormuz, sending the world into energy turmoil.
"It is possible that tomorrow, the time may come when India plays its role in this and achieves success as well," Singh said during his address to the Indian diaspora in Germany on Wednesday.
"The Prime Minister has appealed to both sides to end the war. Our Prime Minister has a very balanced approach to diplomatic matters," he added.
Interestingly, Singh's remarks came after the second phase of the US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan got stalled following disagreements over the state of the Shia-majority nation's nuclear enrichment programme.
Notably, India is not a formal mediator in the conflict in a conventional sense; there is not an iota of doubt about the role that India can play in pushing for peace negotiations amidst the ongoing crisis between the US and Iran, reckoned Dr Pavan Chaurasia, a Research Fellow and a West Asian affairs specialist at the New Delhi-based foreign policy think tank India Foundation.
West Asia, for India, is not just its extended neighbourhood but an immediate one. It depends heavily on the region for its energy security, welfare of its diaspora and remittances that play a significant role in its economy, he added.
India has enjoyed impeccable credibility in the region due to its neutrality and its approach that focuses on peaceful resolution of disputes over armed conflict, diplomatic route over war and the use of international laws, resolutions, forums and global platforms to find a solution, the think tanker noted.
"It has strong relations with all the parties in the war, including the US, the Gulf monarchies, Iran and Israel. Its diplomatic acceptability gets more pronounced due to its non-interventionist and non-hegemonic foreign policy. The strategic credibility helps in pushing India's role as a facilitator for dialogue between the warring parties," Chaurasia told Sputnik India.
However, India will not take on a direct role in resolving this dispute because it understands the challenges, most importantly, the parties' commitment to actually walk the talk. Hence, it is focusing on encouraging both parties to give chances to diplomacy and not military confrontation, he underscored.
PM Modi has developed personal relations with several world leaders, including the heads of state of the Gulf monarchies and the Israeli PM. He may engage diplomatically at the leadership level, but unless all parties are open to it, it is unlikely that India would openly present itself as a formal mediator, the pundit stressed.
"Moreover, India has historically refrained from taking on overt mediation responsibilities in disputes involving significant geopolitical powers, especially when the US is directly engaged. New Delhi would rather engage in covert diplomacy than make public interventions. By minimising needless strategic risks, this strategy helps maintain India's relations with all parties," Chaurasia pointed out.
If the situation worsens and there is a widespread international attempt to defuse the situation, PM Modi may be able to leverage his close relationship with regional leaders to promote confidence-building initiatives, advocate moderation, and ease communication. Instead of mediating a formal settlement, such involvement would probably be covert, informal, and focused on lowering tensions. His personal efforts will come with a lot of risk; the call will have to be taken by India after a lot of considerations and negotiations, he stated.
Preeti Khenta, an associate fellow at the Udaipur-based Usanas Foundation, backed Chaurasia's assessment, underlining that the Defence Minister's remarks may have indicated India's growing diplomatic aspirations; however, its role will be limited in the Gulf Crisis.
India does have significant stakes in the region, be it in energy security or trade and its diaspora. Furthermore, it has also maintained balanced ties with both Washington and Tehran. This reflects New Delhi's position as a credible but secondary actor, capable of supporting dialogue and de-escalation, she explained.
"But the conflict is driven by hard power dynamics where India lacks substantial leverage. At this juncture, India can act as a quiet facilitator through backchannel diplomacy and multilateral engagement, rather than stepping in as a primary mediator," Khenta said in an interview with Sputnik India.
In theory, PM Modi could leverage India's ties with Israel, Iran and the US to support the de-escalation. Even so, direct mediation is very unlikely at this stage. Such a role would require both a negotiation window and acceptance from all parties involved, neither of which is currently evident, the foreign affairs commentator emphasised.