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Should India Be Alarmed by the Current Unrest in Pakistan?
Should India Be Alarmed by the Current Unrest in Pakistan?
Sputnik India
Confrontation and violence have engulfed Pakistan in the past few days, with supporters of ex-PM Imran Khan laying siege to Islamabad. Sputnik India examines... 27.11.2024, Sputnik India
2024-11-27T20:46+0530
2024-11-27T20:46+0530
2024-11-28T12:18+0530
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The interconnected nature of South Asian politics means any destabilisation in Pakistan warrants political, diplomatic, and military vigilance and preparation for the turbulence, Indian geopolitical pundits said. Political instability in Pakistan, especially one marked by unrest, violence, and internal turmoil, can have serious implications for India, retired Lieutenant General Ashok Bhim Shivane told Sputnik India on Wednesday.Instability in the country can create space for for extremist factions to potentially escalate cross-border terrorism in India, he believes, particularly on the Line of Control (LoC).Furthermore, regional instability affects trade dynamics in South Asia, and although direct trade between India and Pakistan is as good as non-existent, uncertainty could disrupt larger regional and global economic initiatives, such as South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) or connectivity projects, Shivane assumed.Besides, heightened involvement by external players, such as China, the United States, and Gulf nations, may influence regional dynamics and indirectly affect India's strategic environment and balance in the Indian subcontinent, the military analyst suggested.An unstable neighbour should always raise concerns in neighbouring countries, retired Major General Anil Sengar highlighted in a conversation with Sputnik India.The impact is visible in Bangladesh as it has failed to achieve the transformation even after 100 days of the new administration. There's little doubt that fundamental Islamists have taken the front seat there, the pundit underlined.Although Sengar does not expect any major cause for concern for India, he views this political violence as a "snake around the neck of the Pakistan Army Chief", which has been created by orchestrating political instability through the ousting of Imran Khan and his subsequent imprisonment, and by doing all this, the state military has exonerated Nawaz Sharif of all corruption charges.Currently, India needs to be on the lookout for an increase in terrorist activities in Kashmir by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT*) and other militant groups, he cautioned. Moreover, the possibility of minorities being targeted in the chaos, as is happening in Bangladesh, cannot be ruled out, the observer commented.Although the protests demanding the release of PTI leader Imran Khan have been temporarily called off after a brutal midnight crackdown, there is no guarantee that they won't erupt in the future, Dr Priyanka Singh, an associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in New Delhi, told Sputnik India.This pattern has remained so for decades of Pakistan's chequered history and for India, it has been more of a routine, perennial concern and it is not really that this particular spate of protests asking for Khan's release is a special concern, the think tanker expressed.More importantly, by taking a tough stance of no dialogue until Pakistan ceases its support for terrorism, India has placed itself in a position where it needn’t worry about an isolated protest or unrest in its neighbour, as it is for Pakistan to deal with, she assessed.Sentiment for Khan was at its peak during local rallies in October, held by ordinary Pakistanis in support of Hamas ex-leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah former leader Hassan Nasrallah, both of whom were assassinated during Israeli airstrikes, Anant Mishra, a Marie Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security (ICPS), University of South Wales, stated in an interview with Sputnik India.This support somewhat mirrored Khan's own defiance against the current dispensation, which sparked protests that he has since called off, the expert disclosed, noting that he had spoken to three confidants of former Pakistan PM Khan.The Pakistani people's support for Imran Khan reflects their desire for a figure akin to Haniyeh or Nasrallah, with some hailing his tenacity in defying the current dispensation and his fight for the people of Pakistan, the researcher observed.In discussions with local Pakistanis, the expert said, it is evident that many long for a leader who could spearhead their opposition to the state's political elites, drawing inspiration from the resilience shown by the people of Gaza or Beirut.They envisage a movement capable of uniting all segments of society — one that could engulf the state, Mishra added.In the context of implications for India, he emphasised that such protests, although having significant influence in the region and even shaping the trajectory of Indo-Pak relations in the event of a regime change, are not a cause for concern for India.*Terrorist organisations banned in Russia and other countries
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Should India Be Alarmed by the Current Unrest in Pakistan?
20:46 27.11.2024 (Updated: 12:18 28.11.2024) Confrontation and violence have engulfed Pakistan in the past few days, with supporters of ex-PM Imran Khan laying siege to Islamabad. Sputnik India examines how the unrest could impact neighboring India.
The interconnected nature of South Asian politics means any destabilisation in Pakistan warrants political, diplomatic, and military vigilance and preparation for the turbulence, Indian geopolitical pundits said.
Political instability in Pakistan, especially one marked by unrest, violence, and internal turmoil, can have serious implications for India, retired Lieutenant General Ashok Bhim Shivane told Sputnik India on Wednesday.
"As in the past, it has often resulted in diversionary tactics focused on India in general and Kashmir in particular. The anti-India agenda remains a unifying factor for Pakistan under adversity. The 3Ms combine here –the Military, Mullah, and Militants," Shivane stated.
Instability in the country can create space for for extremist factions to potentially escalate cross-border terrorism in India, he believes, particularly on the Line of Control (LoC).
Furthermore, regional
instability affects trade dynamics in South Asia, and although direct trade between India and Pakistan is as good as non-existent, uncertainty could disrupt larger regional and global economic initiatives, such as
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) or connectivity projects, Shivane assumed.
"Though low, there are nuclear risks associated with the current political chaos in Pakistan. While the military controls the nuclear assets, prolonged instability or a breakdown in civil-military relations could pose significant risks of them falling into the hands of non-state actors," he pointed out.
Besides, heightened involvement by external players, such as China, the United States, and Gulf nations, may influence regional dynamics and indirectly affect India's strategic environment and balance in the Indian subcontinent, the military analyst suggested.
An unstable neighbour should always raise concerns in neighbouring countries, retired
Major General Anil Sengar highlighted in a conversation with
Sputnik India.The impact is visible in Bangladesh as it has failed to achieve the transformation even after 100 days
of the new administration. There's little doubt that fundamental Islamists have taken the front seat there, the pundit underlined.
"The current unrest in Pakistan, even though, a result of its own making, could force the army to look for distractions, and in that scenario, India baiting becomes easy. Also, there is a possibility that Baloch fighters or Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP*) could exploit this situation to strike in Pakistani Punjab and elsewhere. To divert attention, the army could blame India for fostering trouble as it often does," he stressed.
Although Sengar does not expect any major cause for concern for India, he views this political violence as a "snake around the neck of the Pakistan Army Chief", which has been created by orchestrating political instability through the ousting of Imran Khan and his subsequent imprisonment, and by doing all this, the state military has exonerated Nawaz Sharif of all corruption charges.
Currently, India needs to be on the lookout for an
increase in terrorist activities in Kashmir by
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT*) and other militant groups, he cautioned. Moreover, the possibility of minorities being targeted in the chaos, as is happening in Bangladesh, cannot be ruled out, the observer commented.
"If the situation does not calm down, limited martial law-type situations in some parts may be imposed. Frankly speaking, Pakistan is headed for a serious internal crisis," Sengar elucidated.
Although the protests demanding the release of PTI leader Imran Khan have been temporarily called off after a
brutal midnight crackdown, there is no guarantee that they won't erupt in the future,
Dr Priyanka Singh, an associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in New Delhi, told
Sputnik India.
"Imran Khan has been in prison for far too long, and his support has only grown during this period. At the same time, it is needless to say that this kind of political turmoil is a regular mundane feature of Pakistani politics", Singh asserted. "Political instability in Pakistan is an incessant problem and, therefore, for India, the real concern is the consistent undermining of the democratically elected government at the hands of the military — whose existential lifeblood has been the anti-India posture," Singh asserted.
This pattern has remained so for decades of Pakistan's chequered history and for India, it has been more of a routine, perennial concern and it is not really that this particular spate of protests asking for Khan's release is a special concern, the think tanker expressed.
More importantly, by taking a tough stance of no dialogue until Pakistan ceases its support for terrorism, India has placed itself in a position where it needn’t worry about an isolated protest or unrest in its neighbour, as it is for Pakistan to deal with, she assessed.
"What India could do is stick to its strident position against terrorism, invest more towards long-term policies and strategies, and devise ways to deal with unforeseen contingencies that the Pakistani establishment may choose to unleash someday," the analyst remarked.
Sentiment for Khan was at its peak during local rallies in October, held by ordinary Pakistanis in support of Hamas ex-leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah former leader Hassan Nasrallah, both of whom were assassinated during Israeli airstrikes, Anant Mishra, a Marie Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security (ICPS), University of South Wales, stated in an interview with Sputnik India.
This support somewhat mirrored Khan's own defiance against the current dispensation, which sparked protests that he has since called off, the expert disclosed, noting that he had spoken to three confidants of former Pakistan PM Khan.
The Pakistani people's support for Imran Khan reflects their desire for a figure akin to Haniyeh or Nasrallah, with some hailing his tenacity in defying the current dispensation and his fight for the people of Pakistan, the researcher observed.
"But, is this sentiment enough to calculate the change in the fabric of Pakistan's society? There is no doubt that the politico-military regime in Pakistan is quickly losing legitimacy in the eyes of the people. Local Pakistanis appear to draw resolve from the people of Gaza or Lebanon, finding hope in the ideologues of militant leaders like Haniyeh or Nasrallah," Mishra underscored.
In discussions with local Pakistanis, the expert said, it is evident that many long for a leader who could spearhead their opposition to the state's political elites, drawing inspiration from the resilience shown by the people of Gaza or Beirut.
They envisage a movement capable of uniting all segments of society — one that could engulf the state, Mishra added.
In the context of implications for India, he emphasised that such protests, although having significant influence in the region and even shaping the trajectory of Indo-Pak relations in the event of a regime change, are not a cause for concern for India.
"There are strategic implications from Imran Khan coming to power but it will be a bit premature to read through the lens of a 'regime change'. If the Pakistanis wish to have Imran Khan as their new leader, it is entirely up to them as it is for them to decide what is in the best interest of their country," Mishra concluded.
*Terrorist organisations banned in Russia and other countries
