https://sputniknews.in/20250116/global-oil-market-forecast-as-white-house-readies-for-trump-20-8667129.html
Global Oil Market Forecast as White House Readies for Trump 2.0
Global Oil Market Forecast as White House Readies for Trump 2.0
Sputnik India
Days ahead of US President Donald Trump's inauguration in the White House, America's outgoing Joe Biden administration announced a fresh wave of sanctions on... 16.01.2025, Sputnik India
2025-01-16T18:53+0530
2025-01-16T18:53+0530
2025-01-17T10:21+0530
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A considerable shift in the US strategy of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Russian entities involved in oil and gas trade is likely once incoming President Donald Trump is back in office, commodity experts have said.The Trump administration is set to pursue four key economic policy pillars, all of which are inflationary, Sumit Ritolia, senior oil refining analyst at market insights firm Kpler, told Sputnik India. This includes far tougher immigration restrictions, pro-cyclical deficit spending, challenges to Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, and aggressive tariff implementation. Ten-year yields have surged in past weeks as concerns mount around the possibility of sticky inflation next year, he stated.He believes that Trump is poised to push for maximum Iran sanction enforcement, which could curb Iranian oil exports by 500 kilobarrels per day (kbd) by mid-2025.Additionally, eased energy regulations and expedited infrastructure projects may bolster US production but are unlikely to change near-term supply dynamics dramatically. Kpler expects US crude supply to increase by 390 kbd next year, Ritolia noted.Besides, Trump will likely revive stalled infrastructure projects, including Keystone XL Pipeline, and expedite permitting. However, federal lands account for only 20% of the US crude supply, limiting immediate upstream growth, he highlighted.The analyst believes that medium-term focus would shift toward efficiency and infrastructure upgrades, rather than a dramatic production surge, explaining that US growth remains moderated by muted upstream activity:Trump's return to the Oval Office could lead to a significant shift in US sanctions policy toward the Russian energy sector, an expert, who wished to remain anonymous, told Sputnik India. Trump's focus would be on increasing US crude exports during his second stint as the president, Dr Anuradha Chenoy, the former dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), suggested during an interview with Sputnik India.As far as reducing sanctions on Russia is concerned, there's little doubt that Trump is likely to end the war in Ukraine, she stated.However, unlike Biden, who was hellbent on continuing stricter sanctions against Russia, especially embargoes on oil shipments to China and India, Trump is expected to soften his stance on the matter, she expressed.Trump has great relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who would like to ensure that the US does not penalise India for its oil trade with Russia, Chenoy concluded.
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Global Oil Market Forecast as White House Readies for Trump 2.0
18:53 16.01.2025 (Updated: 10:21 17.01.2025) Days ahead of US President Donald Trump's inauguration in the White House, America's outgoing Joe Biden administration announced a fresh wave of sanctions on the Russian energy sector.
A considerable shift in the US strategy of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Russian entities involved in oil and gas trade is likely once incoming President Donald Trump is back in office, commodity experts have said.
The Trump administration is set to pursue four key economic policy pillars, all of which are inflationary, Sumit Ritolia, senior oil refining analyst at market insights firm Kpler, told Sputnik India.
This includes far tougher immigration restrictions, pro-cyclical deficit spending, challenges to Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, and aggressive tariff implementation. Ten-year yields have surged in past weeks as concerns mount around the possibility of
sticky inflation next year, he stated.
"Trump's foreign policy will also mark a considerable change from the status quo. This includes less support for Ukraine, intensifying anti-Iranian sentiment, and a continued hardline view towards China," Ritolia highlighted.
He believes that Trump is poised to push for maximum Iran sanction enforcement, which could curb Iranian oil exports by 500 kilobarrels per day (kbd) by mid-2025.
Additionally, eased energy regulations and expedited infrastructure projects may bolster US production but are unlikely to change near-term supply dynamics dramatically. Kpler expects US crude supply to increase by 390 kbd next year, Ritolia noted.
Besides, Trump will likely revive stalled infrastructure projects, including Keystone XL Pipeline, and expedite permitting. However, federal lands account for only 20% of the US crude supply, limiting immediate upstream growth, he highlighted.
The analyst believes that medium-term focus would shift toward efficiency and infrastructure upgrades, rather than a
dramatic production surge, explaining that US growth remains moderated by muted upstream activity:
Rig counts: Near multi-year lows, signaling reduced exploration and drilling.
Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUCs): Limited uncompleted wells cap quick production increases.
Shareholder priorities: Focus on returns over-aggressive expansion keeps growth in check.
Trump's return to the Oval Office could lead to a significant shift in US sanctions policy toward the Russian energy sector, an expert, who wished to remain anonymous, told Sputnik India.
"During his previous term, Trump adopted a more transactional and less confrontational approach to foreign policy, often prioritising economic and strategic benefits over broad punitive measures. This contrasts sharply with President Joe Biden's strategy, which has focused on imposing sweeping sanctions to curtail Russia's energy revenue in response to geopolitical tensions," he highlighted.
Trump's focus would be on increasing US crude exports during his second stint as the president, Dr Anuradha Chenoy, the former dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), suggested during an interview with Sputnik India.
As far as reducing sanctions on Russia is concerned, there's little doubt that Trump is likely to end the war in Ukraine, she stated.
"But Trump wishes to wrap up military action there [in Ukraine] on his own terms. This could be a bone of contention during the negotiations with Russia because it is already in the driver's seat, winning on the battlefield," Chenoy asserted.
However, unlike Biden, who was hellbent on continuing stricter sanctions against Russia, especially embargoes
on oil shipments to China and India, Trump is expected to soften his stance on the matter, she expressed.
Trump has great relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who would like to ensure that the US does not penalise India for its oil trade with Russia, Chenoy concluded.
