Rare Earth Obsession: Human Brains Are Next Critical Commodity?
© Sputnik / Павел Львов
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That story about the (temporary) stop of all kind of American aid to Ukraine has brought a kind of a revelation to the world. What is it that stands behind it?
It so appears that there is something called rare earth minerals, previously almost ignored by everyone except the experts, and now powers big and small are entering a veritable fight for that treasure, going to extremes in the process, like ending wars and casting away former friends.
To remind, the current administration of the US intended, or so it seemed, to broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and a certain rare earth deal (with Ukraine, Russia or both) had to be a part of the package. The Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky was about to sign a rare earth document in Washington last week, but something went wrong, as in a verbal skirmish.
So Zelensky was kicked out of White House with ignominy, his regime has been just deprived of military and other kind of American aid, and, in the midst of the scandal, Zelensky refused to sign the rare earth deal, or at least that’s the way the story goes.
Predictably, there was an avalanche of commentaries in the Russian media. Some of these were been made by the people with knowledge not only about the ongoing madness of the global politics, but also about the meaning of certain minerals in the global economy.
And here is what you want to know about Donald Trump’s projected deal with Russia and Ukraine: the US were going to ensure its access to rare earth minerals in any case, essentially making two deals, with both Moscow and Kiev. That fact has been confirmed by Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman of the Russian President, and other sources. Moscow definitely accepts the idea of making America its partner, instead of a virtual military adversary.
Now, why are some metals so important in this case? First of all, we are talking about a vast array of minerals, and, among them, only lithium, a primary commodity for making electric batteries, is known to everybody. But in general we are talking about several industries, currently thought to be critical for a couple of decades to come, at the very least.
This is production of smartphones, airplanes, lasers, medical equipment, electric vehicles and lots of weapon systems. All that production needs some tiny amounts of rare metals, the name of which I’d hate to misspell.
Who owns such deposits and who produces them? Here we have two lists of nations, slightly differing from each other. Not to mention the fact that we may only talks about deposits known and confirmed.
If we talk about production, the estimates of China’s monopoly ranges from 70 to 90%. You may make your calculations by value or by bulk, but in any case the general picture is clear.
The US takes the second place, with estimates of its share of the global market between 12 and 19%. And then come the nations like Russia, Vietnam, Malaysia and several others.
But if you are interested in the proven deposits, the picture changes. Russia is the second holder of that treasure, the US only third, with India, Brazil, Afghanistan and others also in the picture.
Ukraine has never been considered an Alladin’s cave of rare earths. And most of the known deposits are in the East of Ukraine, that has seceded from Kiev long ago and is now part of Russian territory.
So, the real idea of the Americans seems to be about ending the war in East Europe so as to enter in a huge business deal with all the participants of the former conflict, but primarily with Russia. It does not matter where the border will be, what matters is American access to minerals in any case. Russia needs investments into starting making the end product instead of exporting raw materials – but that’s exactly what has been already discussed between Moscow and Washington.
That deal will not undermine China’s current almost invincible position in the rare earth domain, but will at least give the US a chance to improve its strategic standing. Naturally, nobody expects Moscow to rush from its alliance with China to an alliance with the US, but a bit of balancing will be very handy.
And, finally, who knows what new deposits of what may be discovered in the meantime?
To add, what we see here is only the current idea about what will be the most critical commodity for the world of tomorrow. These ideas may very well be wrong, or replaced by new and fashionable concepts on the subject of what is power in this world.
Only a few years ago oil & gas were the key to understanding of numerous wars, coups and conflicts ravaging the world ever from the early 20th century onwards. I have handled numerous magazines and books, describing international battles only from that point of view. It is enough to remind you of several rival projects of laying pipelines across Afghanistan. You will know a lot about the background of everything that happened to that country in the last 50 years or so, only by looking at who and why wanted this or that project to be pushed through.
To remind, in ancient times it were the territories that were the object of rivalry of all kinds of powers. Nobody really cared about the feelings of the people inhabiting these territories, or the languages they spoke. Most of the world economies were about agriculture, with land rent being the base for all national budgets.
Then iron and coal became all-important, not to forget gold and silver. The lands possessing these treasures were paramount in all the big games of war and diplomacy, and don’t forget the logistics, as in ports and railroads.
Then, as I said, it became apparent that energy is the key, and a story of any huge energy company became a study in contemporary history. Now, all of a sudden, the rare-earth minerals seem to be the gold of tomorrow.
They may be that, especially if the current and very dubious ideas about the “green transition” will endure for some time. It’s almost useless to make predictions about it right now. But we may try to predict the next key commodity of the global economy.
Will it be water? But then, there is nothing new about it, battles for water have been fought for millenniums, in Central Asia, Africa and elsewhere. And Russia’s water resources are as huge as its fertile lands (or rare earth deposits) for all king of production.
Let me make another guess: how about brains? How about international agreements worth fighting for, regulating brain drains all over the world or, at least, attempting to do so? Whose brains will be the prize – Indian, Russian, Chinese, Western, African ones? In any case, it will be interesting to watch my prediction coming true in the nearest future.
Dmitry Kosyrev is a Russian writer, author of spy novels and short stories. He also did columns for the Pioneer and Firstpost.com
