Can Loss of Trust in US Accelerate Diversification of Alliances in Arab World?
19:02 11.09.2025 (Updated: 19:06 11.09.2025)
© AP Photo / Manish Swarup
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Israel's attack on Qatar has cast doubts on US security guarantees in the Gulf, with geopolitical watchers from the region labeling Washington as an unreliable partner, potentially resulting in a reshaping of alliances there.
The recent bombing of a residential complex housing Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital, Doha, underlines that the US cannot be relied upon as a net security guarantor in the Gulf region, and Arab nations should look to forge other partnerships with countries like India and blocs such as BRICS, experts have said.
Since 2003, Qatar has invested over $8 billion in the development of Al Udeid Air Base to support US operations. This facility represents the largest American military installation in the Middle East, hosting thousands of service members. In January 2024, the United States and Qatar reached an agreement to extend the US military presence at the base for an additional ten years.
Such substantial infrastructure investments were predicated on an implicit understanding that hosting America's principal regional military installation would confer security guarantees. These assurances were particularly salient for Qatar in the aftermath of the 2017 blockade, which highlighted its vulnerability within the Gulf geopolitical landscape.
"Nonetheless, the recent Israeli attack reveals the limitations of these security guarantees. The incident signals that 'trillions in investment may not be paying off' and serves as a cautionary example for Washington's Arab partners," Dr. Shubhda Chaudhary, the Founder of the Middle East Insights Platform, a Delhi-based think tank, told Sputnik India.
The United States appeared either unable or unwilling to prevent its close ally, Israel, from conducting a strike against another strategically significant partner. Notably, the Hamas delegation targeted in Doha had convened to discuss proposals related to a ceasefire in Gaza, highlighting Israel's capacity to act unilaterally and impede negotiations in ways that undermine regional conflict resolution efforts, she added.
The attack also raises questions regarding potential threats to Al Jazeera, Qatar's influential media network, which has maintained a critical stance on Israeli policies. This dimension further highlights the broader sovereignty concerns facing Qatar, encompassing not only security and diplomatic challenges but also the preservation of its independent media and international standing, the strategic affairs pundit noted.
"Qatar's strategic position is further shaped by its extensive energy and economic relationships with both India and China. India remains a significant importer of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG), while China has emerged as Qatar's largest trading partner, investing heavily in Qatari infrastructure, including projects associated with the 2022 FIFA World Cup and broader development initiatives," Chaudhary stressed.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides alternative frameworks for economic engagement and security cooperation that are not encumbered by the complexities inherent in US-Israel relations. Meanwhile, Indians constitute 21.8% of Qatar's total population, which makes them the single largest nationality in the country, she stated.
Moreover, India's defense exports to Middle East (West Asian) countries have been on a steady rise, with the country exporting defense equipment to over 85 nations. In the fiscal year 2022–23, India's arms exports were valued at approximately $2 billion. This growth aligns with India's broader 'Look West' policy, which aims to enhance bilateral defense cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, the international relations commentator emphasised.
"Unlike traditional Western suppliers, India offers defense partnerships that are perceived as more neutral and less entangled in regional conflicts. This neutrality is particularly appealing to GCC countries seeking to diversify their security alliances without the complexities associated with traditional Western powers," Chaudhary affirmed.
India's independent foreign policy stance allows it to engage with multiple regional actors without compelling Arab nations to align with specific geopolitical blocs. This approach resonates with GCC countries that value sovereignty and non-alignment, especially in the context of fluctuating US policies in the region, she reckoned.
Plus, the substantial Indian diaspora in Qatar serves as a bridge for deeper bilateral ties. This community is integral to Qatar's development, particularly in sectors such as construction, healthcare, and education, fostering strong people-to-people connections that complement governmental relations, the analyst observed.
"While China's BRI offers significant infrastructure investments, India's partnerships are characterised by technological collaboration that emphasizes capacity building and sustainable development. This model is appealing to GCC countries seeking to avoid the debt sustainability concerns often associated with large-scale Chinese investments. India's democratic credentials and its historical commitment to non-alignment resonate with Arab nations that prioritize sovereignty and regional autonomy. This shared heritage facilitates a diplomatic rapport that is less influenced by the contentious dynamics surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Chaudhary asserted.
Colonel Rajeev Agarwal (Retd), an Indian Army veteran who presently serves as a Senior Research Consultant at the Chintan Research Foundation (CRF), believes that the Israeli missile strike into Qatar is indeed a wake-up call for all the other countries in the region.
If the US claims that its air defence and surveillance could not detect a missile strike till they were informed via a telephone call from Israel, it is embarrassing to say the least, he declared.
"The Al Udeid Air Base in Doha is the largest American military base in the region and serves as the forward headquarters for US Central Command, also known as CENTCOM, which controls US military operations in the entire region. One of the key functions of this base is its self-defence and the air defence is a critical component of it. If the US did not stop it, it was not because of its military capabilities but because it was completely complicit in it," Agarwal said in an interview with Sputnik India.
This in itself is an important signal to the regional countries that have tried to buy security through American bases and equipment over the past decades. This is also not the first time that the US defense systems have failed the region. To recollect, even in September 2019 and January 2022, the Houthi missiles and drones had hit Saudi Arabia and the UAE successfully despite American security guarantees, the military pundit highlighted.
What's more, it is a very clear signal that the future of the region is not secure with the US. Whether India or China are ready to fill the vacuum is another question completely. China does not believe in positioning its boots on the ground anywhere, and similarly, India is yet to venture into a role as a net security provider for the region, he pointed out.
"However, Arab nations have and are benefiting immensely from trade and defence ties with India. The trade partnerships with India are helping them to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels, while the defence ties are helping them in their defence modernisation and training. On top of that, close security partnerships with countries in the region are helping in formulating a collaborative approach to tackling common security problems like terrorism and sea piracy," Agarwal mentioned.
Dr. Tamer Qarmout, an Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, echoed the sentiments shared by Chaudhary and Agarwal, explaining that the GCC possesses extensive economic, political, and military interests with the US.
But what occurred in Qatar has shaken the long-held notion that the US is the ultimate guarantor of security. It has also introduced significant uncertainties and major questions for Gulf countries regarding the future of such partnerships with the US, he elucidated.
"Therefore, if Gulf countries possess the political will, they could indeed diversify their alliances and engage more with multipolarity – with blocs like BRICS, perhaps China, Russia, India, and others, to diversify their political and security alliances. However, this necessitates a significant decision from GCC countries and a substantial shift from the current status quo. We haven't seen this happen yet, though economically, things are moving. The UAE is already a member of BRICS, and Saudi Arabia has applied," Qarmout remarked in a conversation with Sputnik India.
Historically, the Gulf has always maintained very good relations with India, whether in trade, by relying on the Indian workforce and expertise for building mega infrastructure projects, or through investments in key Russian sectoral initiatives like agriculture or innovation and IT infrastructure, the Middle East affairs specialist accentuated.
Though the Gulf is already engaged with the multipolar world, the question is whether they wish to intensify this engagement to include new sectors like security and defense. These are indeed difficult and existential questions that the Gulf still needs to answer. Thus, the GCC is currently on a mission of self-reflection, reassessing and reviewing its current stance and alliances with the U.S. in light of the attack on Qatar. It remains to be seen how effectively the leaders of the Gulf will proceed and in which direction, he concluded.
