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Is US Derailing India's Top Trade Project?

© AP Photo / Alex BrandonIndia's Prime Minister Narendra Modi points to President Donald Trump during a news conference in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon)
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi points to President Donald Trump during a news conference in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, Feb. 13, 2025, in Washington. (Photo/Alex Brandon) - Sputnik India, 1920, 27.04.2026
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The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), unveiled in 2023, is a key multimodal trade corridor linking India to Europe via sea routes and railways.
Continued tensions in the Middle East, especially the latest Israeli-American war on Iran, appear to have jeopardised India's pet trade project, IMEC, with the project currently being a non-starter, analysts have said.
The American-Israeli conflict with Iran does impact India, but in an uneven way, which is more about delays, higher costs and strategic dilution than the outright failure of the initiative in areas like trade, energy, diplomacy and global positioning, stated Dr Raj Kumar Sharma, a foreign policy expert at the strategic affairs think tank NatStrat in Delhi.
"IMEC was supposed to reduce risk and costs, but continued tensions in the Middle East have delayed these benefits to India. This also delays investments by member states who could prioritise security spending. IMEC was supposed to balance China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but a delay in its implementation could make BRI more appealing," Sharma told Sputnik India.
In practical terms, when a major corridor like IMEC loses momentum, alternative corridors like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) gain strategic and economic space. It gains urgency as a strategic hedge against unstable maritime chokepoints, the think tanker underscored.
INSTC is often framed as a sanctions-resilient, multipolar corridor involving India, Iran, and Russia. Countries seeking non-Western trade routes lean more toward INSTC. It strengthens BRICS-style connectivity and de-dollarised trade ambitions and avoids chokepoints like the Red Sea and Suez vulnerabilities, he added.
"IMEC's disruption highlights the fragility of the Hormuz Strait, the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean routes. That pushes attention toward completely different geographies like the Arctic. Northern Sea Route's (NSR) core advantage becomes more appealing as it is a shorter route between Asia and Europe compared to the Suez waterway. Besides, both INSTC and NSR are Russia-linked corridors that enhance Russia's position in Eurasian connectivity," Sharma emphasised.
Meanwhile, Dr Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui, a Senior Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, believes that IMEC hasn't been affected much due to the Gulf crisis, as the project is still in its nascent stages.
"While it's a highly ambitious project that has a great blueprint, most of the logistical part is still very much undefined. What has happened since this entire idea was conceived? Israel launched an invasion of Gaza in October 2023. After that, the situation continued to deteriorate. More importantly, it is not the IMEC that has suffered. Other initiatives like Saudi Arabia's Neom City have been stalled, too," Siddiqui said in an interview with Sputnik India.
More than India, the IMEC debacle is a huge setback to Israel. Through the Abraham Accords, the Jewish state was integrated politically in the West Asian region; however, its economic integration didn't happen, and IMEC was such a project that would have brought Israel onto the economic board of the larger Middle East countries, he stressed.
The entire Middle East - Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, the GCC countries, Iran and Yemen, amongst others - is engulfed in a kind of instability, a wave of instability. One should realise that to give a forward momentum to an economic project, there is a need to have political stability, which is completely missing at present. Moreover, there's no hope that in the near future the Middle East is going to emerge as a very strong, stable, vibrant, coherent, integrated and organised, the commentator reckoned.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaks in a joint press briefing with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi) - Sputnik India, 1920, 25.04.2026
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