Pakistan's Imran Khan Arrested: What Does That Mean for India?

The prospect of Pakistan descending into further political instability after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan is a concern for India, Indian defense experts have told Sputnik India.

Major General (retired) Shashi Bhushan Asthana, the director of New Delhi-based think tank United Services Institution (USI) of India, remarked that political instability in Pakistan on previous occasions has “emboldened” anti-India terrorist groups.

“When Pakistan is unstable, we have seen that the terrorist groups tend to become a little stronger. And when the terrorist groups are stronger, the chance of untoward incidents slightly improves,” stated Asthana.

Not only has Khan been arrested for the second time in the last four months, the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government has also indicated that elections, originally scheduled to be held this year, could be delayed due to the ongoing Census and the upcoming de-limitation exercise to redraw electoral boundaries.

The Pakistani media quoted Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar as saying that the entire process could take more than four months.

Asthana pointed out that Islamabad’s commitment at its western border with Afghanistan has increased in recent years, which diverts resources and manpower from the eastern frontier with India.

"Due to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)* onslaught against the Pakistan Army and security agencies, the Army’s committment at the western border has increased," Asthana highlighted

But he underlined that India should be on the guard both at the border and within, as adversaries were also stirring unrest through engineering social unrest in the country by exploiting faultlines.

As reported by Indian channel WION last week, New Delhi asked Youtube to take down an account which was being run from Pakistan and spreading misinformation to exacerbate Hindu-Muslim amity.

“India’s adversaries will increasingly use these tactics to affect the political hierarchy in the country ahead of the election next year. Pakistan has been deploying such fifth-generation warfare tactics,” Asthana said.

Army’s Public Support Base Has been Eroded by Khan, Says Veteran Expert

Senior Indian defense expert Qamar Agha said that an interim government set-up would be “managed by the Army from behind-the-scenes”, as he noted reports of delay in elections.

He said that Khan's arrest was a setback for the "democratization process" of Pakistan, where not a single civilian government has completed its full-term in power since Independence in August 1947.

“We have already seen how PTI supporters came out in large numbers and attacked military installations after his arrest from the Islamabad High Court in May. They even attacked the GHQ headquarters in Rawalpindi, the seat of Army power,” Agha pointed out.

Khan has accused former Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Qamar Bajwa of triggering the no-confidence motion against him last April by giving adverse feedback against his government to the Biden administration.

“Such a scenario would lead to the unleashing of anti-democratic and radical forces in the country. Political instability would also be a shot in the arm for subnational separatist groupings such as those which operate in parts of Balochistan and in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province near the Afghanistan border,” Agha said.

He said that the absence of a “centralized, democratic leadership” in Pakistan would be a boost for “underground militant movements with hardline ideologies”.

Agha stressed that New Delhi has always been a proponent of democratic processes in the neighbourhood during past political turmoils in Nepal, Sri Lanka and currently in Myanmar.

*terrorist group banned in Russia

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