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What a Nuclear-Armed Iran Would Mean For South Asia?

Over the years, Iran has been heavily penalized for its civilian nuclear program, with the US levying sanctions on the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, Tehran's sworn Israel is suspected of having targeted its nuclear facilities.
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Kamal Kharrazi, a seasoned diplomat, who is currently the main advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed to change the country's military doctrine if Iran's existence was under threat from Israel amid rising tensions with the Jewish state.
"We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran's existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine," Kharrazi told media in Tehran during the weekend.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have been simmering since the latter carried out a deadly air strike on the former's embassy in Damascus, killing two of Tehran's top military commanders.
In response to Tel Aviv's military action, Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles directly targeting Israeli territory, the first Iranian attack on the Jewish country's soil in years.
Against this background, Indian military veteran Major General (Retd) Prabdeep Singh Behl underlined that the world is well aware that Iran possesses the know-how and the capability to produce nuclear weapons.
"Moreover, when Kharrazi speaks, he speaks with a lot of authority. It translates to the fact that if an attack on Iran's nuclear installations takes place, then Tehran will retaliate," Behl told Sputnik India on Wednesday.
He highlighted that the particular statement was a fallout of the fact that both sides exchanged missiles and drone attacks recently.

Iranian Statement Is a Marker of Confidence in Its Own Capabilities

"This confidence comes about because of the growing bonhomie between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea and one must not forget that barring Iran, the other three are nuclear states," the defense pundit pointed out.
Besides, geopolitical equations have changed, threats from Western nations have increased, and the Iranian patience over US-imposed economic sanctions has run out, Behl added.
"With their statement, Iran has made it clear that we have it, and if we want, we can," he stated.
In case Iran does follow a path to nuclear weapons, it would join India and Pakistan, which already possess nuclear weapons in the neighborhood.

Implications of Iran's Possible Move on South Asia

There are both tensions and cooperation between Pakistan and Iran. After all, one must remember that Pakistan and Iran conducted tit-for-tat airstrikes inside each other's territories in January while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi paid a visit to bolster ties between the two Islamic countries recently.
On the other hand, there is warmth in Iran and India's relations, with New Delhi signing a 10-year agreement to manage the Chabahar Port in Iran this week.
"Even if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, the balance of power would remain in India's favor because it is a neutral country, and it weighs its pros and cons before it negotiates with any sovereign state in the world," Behl reckoned.
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