How Does India's Decision to Freeze Indus Water Treaty Impact Pakistan?
India's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), led by PM Modi, has decided to temporarily suspend the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism".
SputnikIndia's decision to pause the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 in the wake of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on Tuesday marks the first instance when the water-sharing pact between the two hostile neighbours has been put in abeyance.
Addressing a press briefing after a meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told journalists that there were "cross-border linkages" to the Pahalgam attack, which led to deaths of 25 Indians and one Nepalese citizen holidaying at the tourist hotspot in southern Kashmir.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in response warned on Thursday that any attempt to stop the waters of the Indus tributaries would be considered as an "act of war".
Besides pausing the Indus Water Treaty, India has taken four other major steps to retaliate against Pakistan:
Shutting down the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at the only land border crossing in Attari.
Revoking the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani citizens and asking any such visa-holders to leave India by Friday.
Declaring Pakistani tri-service advisors in India as persona non grata and withdrawing India’s own tri-service advisors at the High Commission in Islamabad.
Reducing the diplomatic corps strength at respective missions in both capitals from 55 to 30.
On Thursday, a statement by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that India has decided to revoke visas of all Pakistani citizens with effect from 27 April. Further, India has strongly advised its citizens against travelling to Pakistan.
But it is believed that temporarily suspending the
Indus Water Treaty for the first time could be the most consequential of the five announcements.
Indian sources said that the decision will have "negative consequences" for Pakistan, adding that India was under "no obligation" to follow the World Bank-mediated treaty from Wednesday onwards.
The Indus Water Treaty mandates that India has the right of "unrestricted" access of the three eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. Meanwhile, the treaty calls on India to allow Pakistan the "unrestricted use" of western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — without interference, except for non-consumptive use, agricultural use and for generation of hydro-electric power (within permissible limits).
India's decision would result in 'limited practical implications' on the ground for Pakistan, Himanshu Thakkar, the Coordinator at the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP), told Sputnik India.
"India would not share hydrological data relating to flood control, flow, gauge and discharge, extractions for or releases from reservoirs, withdrawals at the heads of all canals, escapages, or deliveries, including link canals," Thakkar explained.
He said not sharing the flood data might have implications for Pakistan during the monsoon season, when river volumes swell due to rains.
The Indian expert also said that India won't be bound by "design restrictions" on building any future dam on any of the three western rivers flowing through its territory, noting that Pakistan has already raised disputes to two hydel projects — Kishenganga (330 megawatts) and Ratle (850 megawatts).
"We have seen Pakistan’s objections to several other Indian hydel projects, be it Salal, Nimoo Bazgo, Lower Kalnai and Baglihar," he said.
However, Thakkar pointed out that India has limited means to 'divert' or 'block' significant volumes of water from the western rivers because of insufficient river infrastructure, adding that any new project to achieve the purpose would take at least a decade to come to fruition.
"What India can do is stop sharing data and possibly stop sending documents related to the rivers. Beyond that, even if India wants to construct some infrastructure, diverting the water is not going to happen immediately," Thakkar said.
The Indian expert however flagged that the Indus Water Treaty didn't have an "exit clause", meaning that any modification or suspension of the treaty should be approved by both parties.
"I should state that there isn’t any provision for a
one-sided suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. Any suspension or pause in the treaty must have mutual consent of both the states. So, we are in a grey area," Thakkar concluded.
Meanwhile, India's move on Indus Water Treaty would have "economic and political consequences for Pakistan", Dr Anant Bhagwat, Founder-President of national security think tank Global Strategic Policy Foundation Pune (GSPFP), told Sputnik India.
"What India's decision would do is directly impact the Pakistani population, which in turn would create political pressure for the government and the military establishment. Nearly 80% of Pakistan depends on the Indus Water System, making the river and its tributaries extremely critical for the nation's water and food security," Bhagwat said.
Any further reduction in the flow volumes of western rivers, however minimal, to Pakistan would worsen the country's water woes as well as "political faultlines", he asserted.
Bhagwat mentioned the ongoing protests in Sindh against Punjab's diversion of water to the Taunsa-Panjnad (TP) Link Canal, highlighting the critical importance of the Indus Water System for Pakistan, as highlighted in recent media reports.
"A possible reduction in water flow has the potential to adversely impact the Pakistan's food and agricultural security. Even the optics of pausing the Indus Water Treaty would create a fear psychosis in the minds of the Pakistani public, creating pressure for the Pakistani government," Bhagwat concluded, emphasising the country's role as a major producer of 'water-intensive' cash crops like rice, sugarcane, and cotton.