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Heatwave, Monsoon & Climate Change May Hurt India's Growth: Experts
Heatwave, Monsoon & Climate Change May Hurt India's Growth: Experts
Sputnik India
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran recently predicted that India was poised for "world-beating" growth in 2022-23.
2023-05-28T12:00+0530
2023-05-28T12:00+0530
2023-05-29T13:47+0530
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A food and agriculture policy analyst and an academician specializing in the Indian economy have warned that India's growth, which is expected to breach the 7 per cent barrier this fiscal, could take a hit from an intense heatwave and other effects of climate change. Their comments came days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das estimated that the South Asian nation's GDP growth for the financial year 2023 could surpass the 7 per cent mark."For the year that has just ended, 2022-23, the estimates are that it (GDP growth) will be 7 per cent. But there is a possibility that it could be even more", the RBI chief said at the annual conference of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in Delhi on 24 May. Similar views were also shared by the country's chief economic adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, this week.Sputnik tried to dig deeper into the issue and find out how climate change risks and extreme weather conditions could impact India's chances of moving up the list of top global economies.Climate Change Puts India's Agriculture at RiskDevinder Sharma, a distinguished food and trade policy specialist, cautioned the government against such optimism, as he reckoned that climate change would affect India's agriculture production.He added that the issue of a heatwave affecting agriculture is not only concerned or limited to the monsoon season, because last year, India saw a heatwave striking wheat crops in the wheat harvesting season, as a result of which production fell.Sharma underlined that even this year, there are expectations or anticipation that a heatwave or climatic aberrations will affect agriculture. "Obviously, when agriculture gets hit, the economy will also be faced with an impact," the agriculture policy specialist asserted.Sharma noted that climate change is a problem everywhere in the world, and India is no exception. Therefore, the nation will also have to make preparations to see how it can get through the heat period, and how it can take advantage of full reservoirs of water."If in this monsoon season, let us say, there is no rainfall after the sowing has been done, the crop has been sown and then the rainfall withdraws, then again we'll have to bring in some contingency plans, making preparations for re-sowing the crop, although there will be a loss in production. But all these things have to be worked out. That is what I think India is aiming at and preparing for", he stated.Both Financial & Political Stability Crucial for Economic GrowthOn the other hand, Lekha Chakraborty, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, urged the federal government to incorporate a budget to mitigate climate change risks to agriculture.The academician, however, also pointed out some other reasons behind India being the bright spot among the world's economies: both financial and political stability is crucial to achieving the kind of growth India is poised to attain in the next few years."Unlike Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India does not have a high component of external debt. Over the years, India has shifted to financing the fiscal deficit through internal market borrowings. The political economy of public debt is compelling", Chakraborty concluded.
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Heatwave, Monsoon & Climate Change May Hurt India's Growth: Experts
12:00 28.05.2023 (Updated: 13:47 29.05.2023) Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran recently predicted that India is poised for "world-beating" growth in 2022-23.
A food and agriculture policy analyst and an academician specializing in the Indian economy have warned that India's growth, which is expected to breach the 7 per cent barrier this fiscal, could take a hit from an intense heatwave and other effects of climate change.
Their comments came days after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das estimated that the South Asian nation's GDP growth for the financial year 2023 could surpass the 7 per cent mark.
"For the year that has just ended, 2022-23, the estimates are that it (GDP growth) will be 7 per cent. But there is a possibility that it could be even more", the RBI chief said at the annual conference of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in Delhi on 24 May.
"According to all recent trends, it will not be a surprise if GDP growth for last year comes slightly more than 7 per cent. But let's stick to 7 per cent for the time being", Das added.
Similar views were also shared by the country's chief economic adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, this week.
Sputnik tried to dig deeper into the issue and find out how climate change risks and extreme weather conditions could impact India's chances of moving up the list of top global economies.
Climate Change Puts India's Agriculture at Risk
Devinder Sharma, a distinguished food and trade policy specialist, cautioned the government against such optimism, as he reckoned that climate change would affect India's agriculture production.
"India is about to enter the monsoon season and monsoon season, as you know, is the lifeline for the country. Although the predictions are that the monsoon season this time will be around the norm, lately, there was a worry of El Nino developing in India, obviously during the monsoon season, especially from July, August, that's the period that they are worried about", Sharma told Sputnik on Friday.
He added that the issue of a heatwave affecting agriculture is not only concerned or limited to the monsoon season, because last year, India saw a heatwave striking wheat crops in the wheat harvesting season, as a result of which production fell.
Sharma underlined that even this year, there are expectations or anticipation that a heatwave or climatic aberrations will affect agriculture.
"Obviously, when agriculture gets hit, the economy will also be faced with an impact," the agriculture policy specialist asserted.
Sharma noted that climate change is a problem everywhere in the world, and India is no exception. Therefore, the nation will also have to make preparations to see how it can get through the heat period, and how it can take advantage of full reservoirs of water.
"If in this monsoon season, let us say, there is no rainfall after the sowing has been done, the crop has been sown and then the rainfall withdraws, then again we'll have to bring in some contingency plans, making preparations for re-sowing the crop, although there will be a loss in production. But all these things have to be worked out. That is what I think India is aiming at and preparing for", he stated.
Both Financial & Political Stability Crucial for Economic Growth
On the other hand, Lekha Chakraborty, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, urged the federal government to incorporate a budget to mitigate climate change risks to agriculture.
"For instance, inflation is not strictly a monetary phenomenon in India. How the shocks from monsoon variations and other weather-related issues are captured in the 'inflationary expectations channel' of RBI is ambiguous and hence the efficacy of monetary policy on economic growth. In such a scenario, fiscal policy needs to be accommodative for robust economic growth", she said in a conversation with Sputnik.
The academician, however, also pointed out some other reasons behind India being the bright spot among the world's economies: both financial and political stability is crucial to achieving the kind of growth India is poised to attain in the next few years.
"Financial stability is crucial for economic growth. The Western economies are grappling with financial instabilities and high-interest rates. The debate on the debt ceiling in the US points to the potential fiscal risks and macroeconomic uncertainties. The Ukraine crisis and geopolitical risks affect the economic growth recovery process of the West and the rest", Chakraborty asserted.
"
Unlike Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India does not have a high component of external debt. Over the years, India has shifted to financing the fiscal deficit through internal market borrowings. The political economy of public debt is compelling", Chakraborty concluded.
