Indian Refiners Remain Deeply Committed to Russian Oil: Analyst
© AP Photo / PANKAJ NANGIA
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For large parts of the last three years, Russia has remained India's top oil supplier, regularly occupying a one-third share in the country's oil basket.
Indian refiners remain deeply committed to Russian oil despite a fresh wave of US sanctions after the South Asian country's import figures from the Eurasian state in March 2025 confirmed that trend, a crude analyst has said.
"Even after the expanded US sanctions targeting Russia's oil logistics and shadow fleet in January 2025, Indian crude imports from Russia show no signs of structural retreat. Volumes remained robust as we have seen in 2023/2024," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling, Kpler, told Sputnik India.
Kpler-tracked data reveals the following volumes imported from Russia in the first three months of 2025:
January: 1,640 kbd (thousand barrels per day)
February: 1,476 kbd
March (updated till 21st): 1850 kbd
This surge in volume in March comes as Russia's domestic crude demand plummeted in February/March due to Ukrainian drone attacks on several refineries, he explained.
Urals crude remains below the G7 price cap, enabling buyers and sellers to utilise Western shipping and insurance services for transportation.
This puts the Q1 2025 average at 1,747 kbd, only slightly below the record highs of 2023, and confirms that Indian refiners remain deeply committed to Russian oil supply despite tightening restrictions, he noted.
Several factors continue to drive this resilience:
1.
Refining Flexibility: Indian refiners are well-configured for medium sour crudes like Urals, which can be blended or processed directly.2.
March Surge Demonstrates Demand Stickiness: The sharp rebound to an estimated 2,125 kbd in March — an all-time monthly high — illustrates both the adaptability of buyers and the depth of appetite for Russian grades. It also underscores that early-year moderation in January and February likely reflected transitional logistical adjustments rather than demand weakness.3.
Geopolitical Independence: India continues to maintain a strategically non-aligned energy policy. It resists external pressure to reduce Russian flows, instead prioritising affordable and secure supply over diplomatic alignment with Western sanctions regimes."In a nutshell, Russian crude remains a central component of India's crude import portfolio. The March rebound confirms that sanctions alone are insufficient to curb demand in the absence of secondary measures targeting buyers. Unless such steps are taken, India is poised to remain Russia's most critical crude outlet in 2025," Ritolia underlined.
What Happens If Trump Lifts Embargo
Though a peace deal to end the three-year-long Ukraine war still seems distant, the market has begun evaluating the potential impact on oil prices and trade flows if the Donald Trump administration were to lift sanctions on Russia's energy sector, he stated.
One expects flat oil prices and overall Russian crude exports to remain largely unaffected, as US sanctions have never successfully disrupted Russia's oil shipments, Ritolia pointed out.
Nonetheless, Russian oil prices are set to rise as sellers will no longer need to offer steep discounts to attract buyers. Some European nations may also seek to resume Russian crude purchases for economic reasons, though likely not on a large scale, the oil marketeer thinks.
"This could, however, reduce cargo availability for India. In that scenario, the South Asian country is expected to boost purchases of Middle Eastern crude, particularly Iraqi grades, along with arbitrage cargoes from the Atlantic Basin, taking advantage of the narrowed Brent-Dubai EFS. In fact, India has already ramped up buying of West African crude, with an estimated 500 kbd set to arrive in March — the highest in three years — along with increased cargoes from the US," he underscored.
The short-term trajectory for Russian crude import(Q2–Q3 2025) is likely to remain dominant, but increasingly challenged, Ritolia emphasised.
