Trump’s Economic War on BRICS Could Speed Up US Decline: Experts
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US President Donald Trump has threatened BRICS members and partners with 10% tariffs over de-dollarisation. Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia have issued firm responses, signaling resistance to US pressure.
American threats to impose sanctions on BRICS nations and the countries that are allied to the powerful geo-economic group, especially Southeast states like Indonesia, are set to accelerate ASEAN's push towards the BRICS and China, experts have said.
"I hope that the Trump administration understands that ASEAN sits in the backyard of China and deserves to be treated with consideration. In all likelihood, the tariff threats by the US may accelerate the push of Malaysia and other ASEAN nations towards BRICS as well as China," Dr. Shankaran Nambiar, a Malaysian economist and author, told Sputnik India.
However, the US has significant interests in the region, both economic and security. So, the US would be wise to play a more constructive role in retaining the American influence in Southeast Asia rather than resorting to tariff threats, he added.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has taken a reasonable stance on the trade talks with the US. At the same time, he has consistently been talking of neutrality, non-alignment, and has refused to be regulated by a binary choice, the observer stated.
"Accordingly, he [Ibrahim] has held meetings with President Xi Jinping of China, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and PM Narendra Modi. We have also seen the leaders of Indonesia and Vietnam being in regular touch with the US President. So, Malaysia and other ASEAN leaders just want to take a balanced position in the intensifying geopolitical rivalry," Nambiar noted.
Trump has adopted a confrontational trade stance towards BRICS, viewing their policy as "anti-American", effectively declaring an economic war on BRICS-aligned states, said Dr. Irine Hiraswari Gayatri, Senior Researcher and Coordinator of the International Politics and Strategic Issues-Study Cluster; Research Centre for Politics at the Research and Innovation National Agency (BRIN), in Jakarta, Indonesia. His move reflects his America First approach, retaliating against what he perceives as a challenge to US interests and global influence, she told Sputnik India.
One reason behind Trump's hostility is the fear of BRICS growing clout and its initiatives that could undercut the US dominance, the expert suggested. The BRICS bloc represents a large share of the global population and output, and its members have advocated reforms to the UN and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to better reflect a new multipolar reality. Trump appears very wary of BRICS efforts to de-dollarise their economies, e.g., reduce reliance on the US dollar in trade and finance, she underlined.
"Trump is afraid of BRICS because its combined economic power and push for alternatives—from development banks to payment systems—could gradually erode the US dollar's global reserve currency as a position of US Global power," Gayatri stressed.
Trump's attacks on BRICS, including tariffs, threats, and hostile rhetoric, are likely to backfire in the long run, intensifying the trends he aims to stop, the global politics analyst said. The US is reinforcing its determination to reduce dependence on American-dominated systems by targeting countries to align with BRICS or seeking alternatives to the dollar. Such external pressure from the US often galvanizes nations to band together, accelerating the push towards a multipolar alignment, she assessed.
Trump's combative approach acknowledges the potency of BRICS de-dollarisation drive, which may embolden the bloc to double down on local currency trade and other measures. In addition, the tariff war could accelerate de-dollarisation in global finance. Trump's unpredictable trade policies and tariff threats have unnerved not just governments but also investors. In essence, his heavy-handed attacks are poised to intensify the global shift toward multipolarity and de-dollarisation, she elaborated.
"Politically, Trump's actions validate the rationale behind BRICS and similar groupings, convincing more nations. They must band together to assert their sovereignty in a multipolar system. Ironically, Trump aims to preserve American primacy, but his approaches risk accelerating the decline of US dominance. Thus, Trump's approaches are also likely to lead to a new global balance, one where no single country's currency or tariffs can easily threaten others," Gayatri suggested.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's decision to join BRICS in 2025 reflects a strategic stance aimed at advancing its national interest amid a shifting global order. This decision is bold in the sense that it is pursuing an independent path, even if it means potentially fraction with Western partners, the strategic affairs commentator highlighted.
Even so, Indonesia needs to be clear about what the national interests are, and that Indonesia should be able to shape BRICS inclusivity, including supporting Turkey's interest to join the group of emerging economies. This will be more reflective of the 'free and active' foreign policy of non-alignment (and multi-alignment), she pointed out.
"Indonesia's decision to join BRICS also aligns with the country's history of balancing great powers. It allows Indonesia to hedge between the US-led WEST and China/Russia by deepening ties with fellow Global South nations, without severing its relations with the West. It can be seen as Indonesia's response to Western double standards on development aid, military interventions, and environmental restrictions. Rising nationalism and the past President Joko Widodo administration's assertiveness in economic sovereignty and South-South cooperation continue. In sum, Indonesia sees BRICS as an additional platform to further its own interests and strategic autonomy consistent with its independent streak in foreign policy," Gayatri underscored.
The primary driver behind Indonesia's enthusiasm towards BRICS is its economic benefits. As a member, Indonesia hopes to share the opportunities provided by the bloc to diversify trade and investment partners, reducing overreliance on traditional Western markets. For example, Indonesia can boost exports of commodities like palm oil, rubber, coal, and gas to large non-Western economies such as India, China, Russia, and Brazil. In addition, BRICS membership gives Indonesia access to alternative financing sources, the international relations pundit explained.
Notably, it can tap the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) for loans to fund infrastructure, energy, and development projects. This is crucial for the newly elected President Prabowo Subianto's ambitious agenda, which targets higher growth through big projects. Also, joining BRICS can attract more foreign investment from fellow members and their allies, creating jobs and tech transfer in sectors like manufacturing and digitech, she argued.
"Moreover, Indonesia's stance can be understood from geopolitical and strategic benefits. As the largest Southeast Asia economy, Indonesia's ascension to BRICS reinforces its leadership role in the region and elevates its voice on the global stage. It positions Jakarta as a bridge between ASEAN and the Global South blocs. Through BRICS, Indonesia can advocate for the interests of emerging economies and push for reforms in global governance, e.g., calling for more inclusive United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and fairer international financial rules," Gayatri elucidated.
More importantly, Indonesia has tied BRICS membership to its vision of a multipolar world. President Prabowo has emphasized that Indonesia wants to promote a multipolar world where developing nations have greater influence in a balanced global order. Joining BRIS is a concrete step to support a new multipolar reality rather than a US-dominated unipolar system. Indonesia sees that BRICS provides a multidimensional instrument to strengthen our economic sovereignty, political stability, and national security amid great power rivalry and fragmentation, she expressed.
The tariffs Trump had proposed is an attempt to decrease the economic growth of countries in the Global South so that the US economy in its region could recover and come back into global economic superiority, believes Ararat Kostanian, who is a Doctoral candidate at the Indonesian International Islamic University, and a scholar member at the Beijing Foreign Studies University.
"From the US perspective, China's economic growth has threatened its unitary economic role, and countries such as Indonesia and India are following the path of becoming the next Asian giants, where the balance of economic power would shift from the Global North to the Global South. That's what Trump is trying to balance, but such tariff policies will only distance countries from the US and make them closer to China for more trade opportunities," Kostanian said in a conversation with Sputnik India.
Within the middle power concept, Indonesia has been able to broadcast a hedging strategy between the West and the East during global uncertainties, and is currently advocating to strengthen the multilateral global system, where economic possibilities might arise within the Global South countries. Such a vision has enabled Indonesia to become a full BRICS member in order to open the country for diversified investments. For instance, it is evident from Indonesia's active engagement with Russia and Saudi Arabia on that matter, he highlighted.
At the same time, it aims to balance and mediate the competition between the West and the East, especially the rising tension between the US and China. Indonesia's Bandung Conference legacy in creating a non-alignment movement in the 1950s is an indication that Indonesia today could be one of the architects of a multilateral world where middle powers could become another pole in balancing the East and the West from entering into open conflict, the researcher suggested.
"In this context, India as well has the balancing ability within the multilateral system, where India and Indonesia are situated in the same foundation, such as BRICS. At the same time, becoming a member of BRICS could sharpen Indonesia's regional role on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by looking for win-win solutions," Kostanian concluded.
