India to Ramp Up Russian Oil Amid US‑Iran War, Surging Prices: Energy Expert
22:15 03.03.2026 (Updated: 22:23 03.03.2026)
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Brent crude prices have surged to $78-per-barrel in the aftermath of the war between Israel and its ally, the US and arch-enemy Iran, plunging the wider Middle Eastern region into chaos.
With Brent oil prices expected to breach the $100-per-barrel mark soon amid the widely escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, India may turn to Russia for increased crude imports after Iran stopped ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea route that delivers at least half of the South Asian country's oil imports, an energy specialist has said.
"For India, being one of the largest crude consumers, the immediate priority should be to manage heightened price risks driven by the ongoing Middle East crisis. Elevated crude prices, higher freight rates, and rising insurance costs are collectively increasing India's energy import bill and will be adding pressure to domestic markets," Arpit Chandna, a crude analyst with the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), told Sputnik India.
India currently sources approximately 50% of its crude oil and nearly 60% of its LNG imports through the Strait of Hormuz. Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, it would be prudent for India to reassess its crude import mix and explore alternative spot or term arrangements that reduce reliance on traditional Hormuz-linked trade routes, he added.
"Historically, India's contingency planning has demonstrated the government's focus on safeguarding energy security while maintaining a careful balance in its geopolitical relationships. As global crude benchmarks move closer to the $100-per-barrel threshold, Russian crude is likely to remain economically attractive for one of the world's largest oil-consuming nations," Chandna underscored.
Russian barrels currently held in floating storage near Asia could offer a viable alternative, particularly as they allow importers to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the commodities specialist explained.
However, Russian crude typically involves longer transit times compared with Middle Eastern supplies. As a result Middle East tensions, a material shift appears unlikely at this stage and will be dependent on further developments in the Middle East regions, he noted.
In 2024 and 2025, India was procuring over 2 million barrels per day from Russia.
However, Russian crude typically involves longer transit times compared with Middle Eastern supplies. As a result Middle East tensions, a material shift appears unlikely at this stage and will be dependent on further developments in the Middle East regions, he noted.
In 2024 and 2025, India was procuring over 2 million barrels per day from Russia.
How Does The Conflict Affect China?
"China is likely to face limited immediate supply disruption from Iran, supported by substantial crude stockpiles built up over recent years. Market estimates suggest China's inventories are close to 900 million barrels. China has actively leveraged discounted crude, importing sanctioned Russian and Iranian barrels alongside Brazilian volumes to replenish stocks and supply its independent "teapot" refineries," Chandna stressed.
Chinese traders remain closely focused on regional developments and are monitoring Iranian crude differentials, which have narrowed amid tighter supply, he stated.
There can be a possible scenario where the US can assume control of Iran's oil facilities and Iranian crude could be removed from the sanctions regime. The following will eliminate the associated discounts, resulting in China recalibrating its crude procurement strategy accordingly, the oil commentator reckoned.
There can be a possible scenario where the US can assume control of Iran's oil facilities and Iranian crude could be removed from the sanctions regime. The following will eliminate the associated discounts, resulting in China recalibrating its crude procurement strategy accordingly, the oil commentator reckoned.
"Overall, China is expected to balance continuity with risk—maintaining Iranian supply where feasible, absorbing shocks through strategic reserves and Russian crude, and supporting de‑escalation efforts. For BRICS economies, the situation reinforces the strategic importance of energy security, supply‑chain resilience, and geopolitical risk management," Chandna summed up.
