An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in northern Gaza would “reduce Hamas’ capabilities significantly but it will take more than just the ground operation to "finish off” the Palestinian group, an Indian academic has told Sputnik India.
“Given the power asymmetry between the IDF and Hamas, the military operation will damage Hamas' capabilities but obliterating it might require more than just a ground operation,” reckoned Muddassir Quamar, an Associate Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at the School of International Studies (SIS) in New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).
Israel has so far refused to heed to warnings, including by the UN, against evacuating around a million residents in northern Gaza to the south of the Gaza river.
The IDF said on Sunday that it won’t carry out any operation on a specific route from Gaza city to Gaza river for three hours so that the civilians could safely evacuate before an imminent ground operation.
“During the opportunity, please take the opportunity to move southward from northern Gaza,” the IDF said in an appeal posted on social media platform X.
New York Times reported on Saturday that IDF was all but certain to launch a ground operation in Gaza. It said that a ground offensive in Gaza was originally planned for the weekend, but was postponed for a “few days” because of bad weather which could have obstructed the air force and drone pilots capabilities to back the ground troops.
The US publication said that tens of thousands of Hamas fighters are believed to be present in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Hamas released a video on Telegram channels on Saturday, showing its fighters waiting in anticipation for the IDF troops.
IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said in a video message on Sunday that IDF troops, estimated to number 300,000, were deployed all along the Israel-Gaza border and were “preparing for the next stage of the operation”.
Serious Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
Quamar warned that an IDF ground operation would create a “serious humanitarian crisis” in Gaza.
Nearly 1.1 million Palestinian residents are in the crosshairs amid appeals by the IDF to leave northern Gaza. Meanwhile, the IDF has claimed that Hamas fighters have been preventing Palestinians from leaving the northern part.
The UN and many countries, including several western governments, have urged Israel to respect humanitarian obligations amid a complete blockade of Gaza in recent days.
Israel’s energy minister Israel Katz said this week that no “electrical switch will be turned on, no water hydrant will be opened and no fuel truck will enter” till Hamas released all the Israeli hostages, reported to be around 150.
The Gaza Health Ministry has said that over 2,200 Palestinian civilians, including women and children, have been left dead in IDF airstrikes since last weekend.
The attack by Hamas fighters last week has left over 1,300 Israelis dead, making it the deadliest ever in Israel’s history.
Risk of 'Iranian Proxies' Joining the War Against Israel: Quamar
Quamar said that there was a fear that “Iranian proxies like Hezbollah” could join the war by opening a front along Israel’s northern borders.
“At this point, there is no indication that other countries will join Hamas in resisting the IDF, if at all, Hezbollah might open a northern front,” the academic said.
He added that Iran or Syria were unlikely to enter the war with Israel directly because of the “damage it can cause to their security and stability, and given the US has been shoring up military assistance to Israel which will work as a deterrent for other militias and countries”.
The Biden administration has warned other countries against joining the conflict, and has backed Israel’s right to “defend itself”.
The US has positioned its most potent USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group off the Israeli coast this week and is mulling dispatching another strike formation to the Middle-East.
Significantly, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has warned of a “political earthquake” if the IDF didn’t cease its military campaign in Gaza.
Amirabdollahian this week visited Iraq, Syria and Lebanon against the backdrop of escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict.
In Beirut, he reportedly met top Hamas leader Saleh Arouri and Palestinian Islamic Jihad group leader Ziad Nakhaleh.
The top Iranian diplomat also met Hezbollah head Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, with the two of them discussing “scenarios” in case the war escalates.
A 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah ended in a stalemate, but Hezbollah is believed to have multiplied its arsenal of medium and long range rockets since. Estimates put Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal to 150,000, which include Iranian Fajr rockets.
IDF and Hezbollah have already been involved in exchange of rocket fire and strikes since the Hamas-IDF hostilities erupted last weekend.