Hamas Chief's Assassination: Implications For Israel & MENA Region

The killing of Hamas's top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in a pre-drawn attack purportedly carried out by Israel, has not only seriously threatened any chance of regional peace in the Middle East but also re-echoed Hamas' commitment and firmed up their resolve against the Jewish state, which could potentially open doors of the conflict being fought on multiple fronts, a geopolitical commentator specialising in Middle Eastern politics has said.

Anant Mishra, who is a visiting fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales, underlined that striking Haniyeh in Tehran is not only viewed as a direct retaliation by Israel against Iran, at a time when a reformist President had recently taken oath of Presidency but this could potentially cease all/any efforts undertaken by President Masoud Pezeshkian for a potential engagement with the West, denying him the very chance of modulating Iranian Foreign Policy.

He noted that this is evident from his statement, condemning the attack but also vowing to defend Iran's territorial integrity, hinting at a possible retaliation against "Israel's cowardly attack".

"To take note of the implications on the leadership of Hamas after this attack, in my discussion with two political leaders within the group, they termed this assassination as an escalated response against its political leadership, re-firming Hamas' momentum and perhaps greater will and resolution to strike against Israel. They further noted the presence of the Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General in the residential complex owned by the IRGC, Al-Nakhalah, living a story up in the same residential complex," Mishra told Sputnik India on Wednesday.

Brain Behind Hamas' Growing Tactical Capabilities

The strategic affairs analyst reckoned that as a practicing Sunni, Haniyeh was the brain behind strengthening the tactical capability of Hamas, elevating its political wing to that of Hezbollah architecture, strengthening relationships (seeking operational guidance from Hezbollah) with key IRGC commanders taking operational control as part of support to the group.

He emphasised that those who dealt with him from a diplomatic aspect, considered him Hamas' leading diplomat, seeking negotiations with Qatar, Türkiye, and even Russia, in his efforts to strengthen the political backbone of the group.

However, finding a replacement with that sheer dedication would simply be challenging, not difficult, given a plethora of next-generation leaders, who are more radical and ideologically hardened… a decision for Tehran and more importantly for Massoud Pezeshkian and the Ayatollah to take, with the former taking his first challenge in the second day of office, Mishra added.

Furthermore, the assassination is a serious challenge to Tehran's new administration: the coordination between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and newly-elected President Pezeshkian, the international relations expert expressed.

"I spoke to a few political leaders in Tehran, who expressed the new administration of reflecting positive signs and the President's personal interest in improving relations with the West, primarily from the perspective of relaxing economic sanctions, but the attack will now put this plan on stay, at least for a year," the former scholar at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) opined.

Mishra explained that Haniyeh's death would have a deep impact, especially on a possible ceasefire and exchange of Palestinian prisoners with Israel.

He pointed out that Haniyeh himself was playing a critical role in negotiating a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and his death not only compromises any possibility of a hostage release in the near future but also seriously jeopardises any attempts (either by the US or its allies for a ceasefire), rewinding any progress undertaken by Washington during the ongoing negotiations.

"Haniyeh was not only the intermediary, but the face of Hamas, the people of Gaza, reflecting messages to Lebanon, Syria, the Middle East, and the rest of the world on death and destruction in Gaza, opening doors for possible negotiations with international organisations. Before his assassination, Washington was quite optimistic, with one State Department official confirming reaching a potential deal very soon, which may not see the light of the day now," Mishra summed up.

Hamas, IRGC React to Haniyeh's Death

It is worth highlighting that both Hamas and IRGC confirmed the death of Haniyeh this morning.

"Early this morning, the residence of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was struck, resulting in his and one of his bodyguards' martyrdom. The cause is under investigation and will be announced soon," the IRGC's statement read.

On the other hand, Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination of their leader in a military raid in the Iranian capital.

"The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas mourns to our great Palestinian people, to the Arab and Islamic nation, and to all the free people of the world: brother, leader, martyr, Mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the movement, who was killed in a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran," the Palestinian group said.

The killing of Haniyeh comes nearly ten months after Israel vowed to eliminate him and destroy Hamas following an unprecedented attack on the country in October last year.

During the surprise attack on the Jewish nation, the fighters belonging to the group killed nearly 1,200, mostly civilians as claimed by Tel Aviv.

In retaliation, Israel's ongoing military operation in Gaza has resulted in the deaths of over 39,400 people, a majority of them being women and children, earning worldwide condemnation, more so from Islamic states.

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