The targeted killings of tourists in Kashmir's Pahalgam have been carried out by foreign terrorists to create instability in Kashmir, which was seeing an unprecedented growth trajectory, especially since 2019 when India stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status, experts have said.
Terrorists new strategy in Kashmir is to run their network through its proxies like the The Resistance Front (TRF), People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), according to Dr. Abhinav Pandya, the founder of Udaipur-based national security think tank Usanas Foundation and the author of the acclaimed books, 'Inside The Terrifying World Of Jaish-E-Mohammed*' and 'Terror Financing in Kashmir'.
"It is amply clear that TRF is an extension of LeT as the majority of its members were previously associated with the Pakistan-based proscribed terrorist outfit, including its founder, Sheikh Sajjad Gul. Besides, Lashkar-e-Taiba's cadres have had close links with Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP*)," Pandya told Sputnik India on Thursday.
One must not forget that former ISPK chief Aslam Farooqui, who was arrested in Afghanistan in 2020, was also connected with LeT, which suggests that there is a tremendous amount of synergy among the various terror groups working in the Af-Pak region. That's why one can never be sure about who's working for whom, the counter-terrorism pundit stated.
At the same time, many of these organisations are working together. For example, both Jaish and Lashkar were fighting the NATO forces in Afghanistan, he noted.
"Following the abrogation of Article 370, the modus operandi of these terror groups has evolved, particularly in the manner that they have tried to ditch their hardcore Islamic labels. Instead, they have tried to portray themselves as indigenous terror organisations, just to spread the message that they represent homegrown resistance against Indian rule in Kashmir. Their prime targets have been tourists and non-Kashmiri labourers to convey a point that they stand in support of the locals," Pandya underlined.
Moreover, by executing targeted killings of Hindu tourists in Pahalgam, these terrorists have attempted to create a wave of communal frenzy across India, which could result in the widening of rifts and tensions between Hindus and Muslims that serve Pakistan's purpose of fomenting instability in India, the think tanker noted.
Following the carnage unleashed by terrorists in Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish both the perpetrators and their backers.
"I say to the whole world, India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth," Modi said during a public rally in the northern state of Bihar.
Yet, India would have to calibrate and think in terms of the larger consequences of a military counter-action against Pakistan, because in 2019, when the Indian Air Force (IAF) conducted the targeted airstrikes on JeM's terror camp in Balakot, there was an immediate reaction from the Pakistani side, retired Brigadier Arun Sahgal told Sputnik India.
So India has to take cognisance of the possible escalation and the escalation management thereafter, he underscored.
"Nonetheless, there are multiple options available with the Indian Armed Forces - (a) a low-cost operation like firing across the LoC, (b) launching targeted strikes on Pakistan's military infrastructure, (c) destroying Islamabad's command and control elements in the region, (d) a strategic non-nuclear weapons strike to degrade Pakistan's critical infrastructure," the Indian Army veteran pointed out.
Sahgal argued that any military action should aim to impose a cost on Pakistan, but it must be carefully considered, including potential escalations and Pakistan's reaction, followed by India's counter-reaction.
The Pahalgam incident is a demonstrated attack designed to create tensions in Kashmir by the Pakistani handlers for multiple reasons. One of the main reasons is the frustration on the part of Pakistanis because they have been desperate for India to resume dialogue with them. This act of terrorism was carried out to show their ability to interfere in India's internal affairs and to cause large-scale social, economic, and political damage here, he observed.
Secondly, a great amount of economic stability had been achieved in Kashmir since 2019, and the Pakistanis reckoned that only this kind of an attack could prevent the economic growth that was taking place in the valley, the military pundit highlighted.
"While the terrorist attack has disrupted the momentum, the Indian leadership and the country's armed forces should reach out to the people of Kashmir, and not abandon them when they need the rest of India to support them, because an economic boycott would destroy all the goodwill Kashmir has achieved in the last 5 years," Sahgal said.
The Modi government understands that the military retaliation has to be much harsher than the Uri surgical strikes or the Balakot air raids, for that matter, Dr Anant Bhagwat, the founder-president of the national security think tank Global Strategic Policy Foundation Pune (GSPFP) told Sputnik India.
A strong kinetic response is the need of the hour. Any military retaliation from India's side would have to strike at the heart of Pakistan's terror complex, he assessed.
"The action has to target not only the terror puppets but also the ones controlling them in Pakistan's military establishment. The incendiary speech of Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir justifying the two-nation theory should be seen as a direct provocation and a dog whistle for terrorists. The link is there for everyone to see," the strategic affairs commentator opined.
Whether this retaliation would take the form of a standoff or a missile strike, or precision targeting of entities or anything else is what we need to see. The government of India realises the underlying anger among Indians. Not doing anything would be perceived as a sign of weakness, not only in the eyes of the Indian public, but also in the eyes of the international community, affecting India's growing global stature, Bhagwat concluded.
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