There is "no doubt" that the US decision to revoke the sanctions waiver from 29 September on Chabahar undermines Indian strategic interests, Indian thinktank chiefs have told Sputnik India.
Last May, India Ports Global Limited (IPGL) and Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) inked a 10-year deal on the Chabahar Port.
Commodore (retired) Seshadri Vasan, the Director-General of Chennai Centre for Chinese Studies (C3S), said that the US decision doesn't only impact India's regional connectivity initiatives, but also its Afghanistan policy for that matter.
Vasan noted that Chabahar and potentially the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) have been emerging as "important dimensions of India's outreach to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics (CARs) as well as beyond to Russia.
"However, the Trump administration's sanctions on Iran have always been a factor hampering private sector investments into Chabahar. So, the full potential of Chabahar is yet to be realised. Plans to further expand trade to Afghanistan and beyond through Chabahar are likely to be affected now, as private sector players have been viewed as wary of violating US sanctions due to their exposure to the US market," the Navy veteran explained.
Further, Vasan pointed out that there may be implications for India's Afghanistan policy, as the Chabahar Port has emerged as the main conduit for India to transport humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan while India seeks to bypass the overland route running through Pakistan. Till date, India has transported over 2.5 million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan through the Chabahar Port. The thinktank chief noted that India-Taliban diplomatic contacts had been intensifying this year, with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar holding his first telephone call with the Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in May and thanking him for condemning the Pahalgam terror attack.
The thinktank chief noted that New Delhi-Taliban diplomatic contacts had been intensifying this year, with External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar holding his first telephone call with the Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in May and thanking him for condemning the Pahalgam terror attack.
Further, Vasan reckoned that the US decision to go back on its sanctions waiver may also reflect a "growing unease with India", coming against the backdrop of 50% tariffs and differences over Russian oil imports.
"India has refused to listen to US diktat on Russian oil, while Prime Minister Modi has taken a strategic decision of normalising ties with China following the disengagement process. And India's push to pursue a policy of atmanirbharta (self-reliance) as it looks to become the world's third largest economy. All these are strong statements of strategic autonomy which have upset the US," the veteran said.
He pointed out that the "emerging regional dynamics", in most cases a byproduct of US foreign policy, have affected India's strategic interests and upset the "strategic equilibrium".
"Be it the 'Maximum Pressure' Policy on Iran, or the US plan to re-take Bagram Air Base or the emerging Pakistan-US bonhomie or the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan mutual defence pact for that matter, there are significant strategic stakes involved for India in every case. A big question remains if China, which has a long-term strategic pact with Iran and also operates the Gwadar Port, would gain at India's expense due to the US decision," Vasan highlighted.
Dr Abhinav Pandya, CEO of foreign policy thinktank Usanas Foundation, described the revocation of the US sanctions waiver as a "major short-term concern" for India.
Pandya said that the US decision shouldn't be viewed in "isolation".
"I believe that the Chabahar decision should not be seen in isolation. We saw the discomfort in US strategic circles following visuals of Prime Minister Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the SCO Summit this month," the thinktank head noted.
The development comes in the backdrop of America's decision to impose 50% tariffs on India, which include a 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil, as well the emerging bonhomie between the US President Donald Trump and Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pandya said.
"The US describes Pakistan as a counter-terrorism partner, and with the US looking to make a comeback in Afghanistan by proposing to wrest back control of the former NATO base in Bagram, the strategic role of Pakistan in US regional policy could grow even bigger," Pandya said, while noting India's concerns over cross-border terrorism.
Pandya said that the question is what exactly would Pakistan want in return for supporting US interests in the region.
"Similarly, one should ask what is Pakistan getting in return from Saudi Arabia by agreeing to provide a nuclear umbrella for Riyadh in case of external aggression. It is not a difficult guess," concluded Pandya.
At a briefing on Friday, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) expressed hope that Saudi Arabia, a major energy and diaspora partner of New Delhi, would respect Indian "sensitivities" following its mutual defence pact with Pakistan.