Russia to Keep Top Spot in India's Oil Market, Crude Experts Predict
© AP Photo / Dmitry Lovetsky
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Russia has consistently occupied the top position among exporters of crude to India, at least for the last two years following the Collective West's decision to shun the Eurasian nation's oil over the Ukraine conflict.
Russia will continue dominating India's oil market, with crude exports to the world's largest democracy projected to reach 2 million barrels per day (Mbd) in May 2025, highlighting the deepening energy ties between the two long-time strategic partners, esperts have told Sputnik India.
In May 2025, India's crude oil imports are around 5.1 Mbd and are expected to close around 5.1 Mbd, reflecting continued strategic alignment with discounted suppliers, particularly Russia, amidst ongoing global market rebalancing and geopolitical complexities, according to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling, at Kpler, a Global real-time data and analytics provider.
Russia emerged as the leading exporter, supplying approximately 1.92 million barrels per day (Mbd) and might close May import at 1.95-2.0 Mbd, accounting for a dominant share of India's total imports. This reflects India's sustained reliance on Russian barrels due to significant price discounts and logistical adaptability, he added.
In May 2025, India's crude oil imports are around 5.1 Mbd and are expected to close around 5.1 Mbd, reflecting continued strategic alignment with discounted suppliers, particularly Russia, amidst ongoing global market rebalancing and geopolitical complexities, according to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling, at Kpler, a Global real-time data and analytics provider.
Russia emerged as the leading exporter, supplying approximately 1.92 million barrels per day (Mbd) and might close May import at 1.95-2.0 Mbd, accounting for a dominant share of India's total imports. This reflects India's sustained reliance on Russian barrels due to significant price discounts and logistical adaptability, he added.
"Urals grade remained the top preferred barrels with 75% of total imports, followed by CPC and ESPO. Amid softer demand for Russia's Far East crude from Chinese independent refiners and a broader decline in oil prices, India's imports of Russian crude are expected to maintain strength," Ritolia told Sputnik India.
Meanwhile, Iraq maintained its position as the second-largest supplier, with imports totaling 1.2 Mbd. Its consistent export volumes reflect long-standing contracts and the suitability of Iraqi grades for Indian refining infrastructure, the commodities commentator pointed out.
Saudi Arabia ranked third, exporting 615 Kbd. While volumes remained stable, Saudi Arabia's share has declined relative to Russian and Iraqi inflows, indicative of shifting procurement preferences. Overall, India's crude import profile for May 2025 highlights its price-sensitive, diversified sourcing strategy. Russian volumes remain elevated despite external pressures, reinforcing the primacy of economic pragmatism in India's energy policy, he noted.
Saudi Arabia ranked third, exporting 615 Kbd. While volumes remained stable, Saudi Arabia's share has declined relative to Russian and Iraqi inflows, indicative of shifting procurement preferences. Overall, India's crude import profile for May 2025 highlights its price-sensitive, diversified sourcing strategy. Russian volumes remain elevated despite external pressures, reinforcing the primacy of economic pragmatism in India's energy policy, he noted.
Why Are India's Oil Imports Rising in May 2025?
In May, India witnessed a decline in refinery maintenance-related shutdowns compared to April, contributing to an increase in crude oil imports. Reliance's Jamnagar refinery completed its planned maintenance by the end of April, enabling higher intake volumes in May. This trend is consistent with India's typical refinery turnaround cycle, where most maintenance activities conclude by April or early May, Ritolia underlined.
According to Kpler analysis based on IIR data, India's offline primary refining capacity dropped to approximately 150 Kbd in May, down from 332 Kbd in April. As of mid-May, Mangalore Refinery is undergoing scheduled maintenance on its 144 Kbd CDU-II unit, which began on May 15 and is expected to last around 30 days.
According to Kpler analysis based on IIR data, India's offline primary refining capacity dropped to approximately 150 Kbd in May, down from 332 Kbd in April. As of mid-May, Mangalore Refinery is undergoing scheduled maintenance on its 144 Kbd CDU-II unit, which began on May 15 and is expected to last around 30 days.
Why Is India Importing More Russian Crude?
Russia continues to offer crude at notable discounts compared to benchmarks like Brent and Dubai or compared to Middle Eastern grades on a landed cost basis. The strong inflow of Russian barrels into India is driven by a combination of economic, operational, and geopolitical factors, the black gold specialist explained.
"A key advantage lies in the pricing of Urals crude, which, although not always steeply discounted, remains significantly cheaper than West African and Middle Eastern grades. This pricing edge has supported stronger refinery gross margins for Indian processors. For instance, in May, average FOB prices for Urals stood around $50/bbl," Ritolia stressed.
Looking ahead, Russian crude is expected to retain a 30–35% share in India's import mix, especially if refining margins remain strong, FOB (Free On Board) economics continue to be favorable, and sanctions remain limited in scope, he concluded.
On the other hand, Arpit Chandna, a Customer Success Manager with Refinitiv, a London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) firm, believes that Russian crude has remained attractive to Indian refiners primarily due to two key factors.
"First, lower international crude oil prices—driven by the OPEC+ decision to increase output—have put downward pressure on global benchmarks, while stable supplies of Russian Urals at discounted rates have made them a preferred choice. Second, the pre-monsoon period typically marks a peak in crude demand, as domestic consumption of refined products tends to decline with the onset of the monsoon season," Chandna said in an interview with Sputnik India.
Indian refiners are expected to maintain their crude oil intake from Russia, which accounted for 39% of the country's crude basket in May. The share of Russian crude is anticipated to remain steady at around 35%, even as imports from other key suppliers such as Iraq, the UAE, and the US continue to rise, reflecting a strategic geopolitical balancing, the pundit underscored.
Besides, the increase in crude imports is likely to be supported by strong demand for refined product exports, particularly diesel, to Southeast Asia, he reckoned.
Besides, the increase in crude imports is likely to be supported by strong demand for refined product exports, particularly diesel, to Southeast Asia, he reckoned.
"In May, India exported approximately 4.47 million barrels of diesel to Southeast Asia, primarily to Singapore and Malaysia, reaching export levels not seen since 2021. The recent surge in product exports from Indian refineries was largely driven by higher refinery yields and reduced shipping costs, making Indian supplies more competitive in the region. This export momentum is expected to continue into next month, as the onset of the monsoon season typically dampens domestic demand," Chandna concluded.
