'Imran Khan Effect' on Upcoming General Elections in Pakistan

The gap between Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-Insaf (PTI) has been narrowing between the last 8 months as shown by surveys done in March, June, November and December 2023 by Gallup Pakistan.

In March 2023, within Punjab the gap between PML-N and PTI was 21% with PTI in the lead. The gap is now around 2% in December 2023 surveys.

"In the crucial 30 days up to the election in February 2024, it would be important to see if the trend continues or is reversed," a report by Gallup Pakistan stated.

An opinion poll carried out last month showed approval ratings for Imran Khan and his party PTI stand at 57%, slightly lower than 60% in June last year. That shows that there is still a huge support for the former prime minister who is now in jail and has been barred from contesting in elections.

Supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's 'Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf' party block a road as protest against against provincial assembly's deputy speaker, Dost Mohammad Mazari for his ruling to invalidate 10 votes in the chief minister elections, in Lahore, Pakistan, Friday, July 22, 2022.

Imran Khan, who turned 71 in October, faces dozens of legal charges and is unlikely to get relief in time to take part in elections on February 8, but despite that his popularity remains strong among Pakistanis and his party is eligible to contest in the general elections. Recently Imran Khan named PTI member, lawyer Gohar Ali Khan as PTI's chairman.

In contrast, PML-N's supremo Nawaz Sharif’s popularity rose to 52% from 36% after the 74-year-old politician returned to Pakistan in October from four years of self-imposed exile in London. He left for the UK to avoid a long jail term on corruption charges, stating health concerns at the time.

A recent survey conducted by a reporter from Naya Pakistan channel, shows him walking around a busy market area in Lahore asking civilians at random who they will vote for. Most of the respondents say that they will vote for PTI, with only a few saying that they will vote for PML-N.

A similar survey conducted by Dawn News on their website also highlighted the majority of respondents wanting to vote for Khan's party on February 8.

A Cricket Icon Standing for Change

Sputnik India spoke to a number of civilians based in Islamabad and Lahore to understand why Imran Khan, still remains the most popular leader among the masses. As a result of these conversations it became clear that Khan's continued popularity in Pakistan can be attributed to several factors.

Firstly, his charismatic leadership and image as a cricket legend-turned-politician resonate with many Pakistanis. Additionally, Khan has been vocal about anti-corruption efforts, emphasizing accountability and transparency in governance, which has garnered support among those seeking systemic change.

Pakistani Canadians showed up in large numbers in Toronto for a peaceful protest against Imran Khan's arrest

Furthermore, Khan's focus on social welfare programs, such as the Ehsaas Program and Kamyab Jawan, has endeared him to segments of the population by addressing issues like poverty and youth unemployment.

"Khan is seen as less corrupt by comparison to Nawaz Sharif or PPP or other parties," Scotland based Pakistani writer and political observer, Parvez Salik told Sputnik India.

"The main problem Khan faced as prime minister was that he could not deliver on all of his promises to the common citizen through lack of experience or incompetence," he added.

The writer further said that the other problem was Khan's relationship with America and his independent stance, which Pakistan's Army did not approve of.

"The army wants to kowtow to the US for its personal benefit. However, both the army and Nawaz have come under criticism of late, so Imran is more popular by comparison. It remains to be seen whether the army will allow a fair election or whether they will push for the corrupt Nawaz who would be more amenable to their demands. Will the masses accept a rigged election? It is impossible to predict," Salik told Sputnik.

Army's Influence on Civilian Governance

Regarding the relationship between Imran Khan's popularity and the army, it's important to note that Pakistan has a long history of military involvement in politics. Imran Khan's alignment with the military establishment has been a subject of debate.

Some argue that his policies were aligned with the army's interests, fostering a cooperative relationship in the beginning of his tenure in 2018, but later the relations soured. However, others criticize this alignment, expressing concerns about the military's influence on civilian governance.

Pakistani-made Shaheen-III and Ghauri missiles, that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, are displayed during a military parade to mark Pakistan National Day, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Wednesday, March 23, 2022.

The interplay between Imran Khan's popularity, governance policies, and his relationship with the military is complex and subject to various perspectives.

In conversation with Sputnik India, former Air Marshal in Pakistan's Air Forces and political analyst, Shahid Zulfiqar, said that now Pakistan's Army is "hell bent" on keeping PTI out of elections.

"Not allocating a symbol to the party by the ECP (election commission) amounts to non recognition of PTI as a part of elections. Harassment of PTI workers and suppression of dissent has created fear amongst people. Seeing all this even the common man understands that elections are being rigged," Zulfiqar said.

"Add to that the resolute stand by Imran Khan, which has made him an icon of hope for the masses. Now the army is apprehensive of free and fair elections because they know who will win," the Marshal added.

The Long Struggles of PTI

Earlier, the Election Commission Pakistan (ECP) had taken away the PTI’s electoral symbol on December 22, saying that the party had violated the constitution and election laws during its internal organizational elections.

Supporters of ruling party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chant slogans during a protest in Islamabad, Pakistan, Sunday, April 3, 2022.

Many political analysts saw that decision by the ECP as unfair and called out the ECP to stay neutral and not side against any particular political party.

Senator Ali Zafar, a senior leader of the PTI and member of the party's legal team in the case said that PTI trusts in the country’s constitution, its laws and the superior courts.

"We do not fear ECP filing a review petition and are fully prepared to face them. It is unfortunate that instead of remaining a neutral body as they should, they are acting like adversaries of the PTI," Zafar told media.

Meanwhile, PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan on Saturday said that his house was broken into by masked men, and his son and nephew were beaten, while he was attending the Supreme Court hearing regarding his party’s electoral symbol of “bat”.

According to a Senior Research Fellow at NUST Islamabad, who asked to remain anonymous, "All these cases, harassment that PTI is suffering is seen by the people and people are not stupid. They can see how unjust and unfair things are for their favorite leader and that is making their faith stronger," the analyst told Sputnik India in a comment.

Everyone that I speak to wants to vote for Imran Khan and even if he is unable to stand in the elections, they will vote for his party," the analyst concluded.

Supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, 'Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf' chant slogans during a protest

For the past two years PTI and Khan have faced a barrage of trouble and accusations. The former cricket captain is currently in prison and is facing multiple legal charges including corruption charges, targeting military installations, and revealing state secrets among others. He has denied all of them and even received bail in many of the cases from high courts, but he is still behind bars.

A huge number of PTI leaders have either quit the party or joined other political rivals, under pressure, while some are currently underground trying to avoid being arrested. Many of the party's candidates for the polls have seen their nominations rejected by the ECP, including Khan himself.

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